Recent inflation pressures from elevated energy prices tied to Middle East tensions have shifted trader focus toward a potential Fed rate hike as the next policy move, with the federal funds target currently held at 3.50%-3.75% following the July 29 FOMC decision. A 9-3 vote included three dissents favoring an immediate increase, reflecting hawkish concerns that supply shocks could reaccelerate price growth beyond the 2% goal, as noted in official statements. CME FedWatch Tool pricing and the June dot plot—showing nine participants projecting at least one 2026 hike—support the 58% market-implied probability for a hike, driven by resilient economic data including solid GDP expansion, strong productivity, and stable labor markets. The September FOMC meeting stands as the primary near-term catalyst that could confirm or alter this consensus amid ongoing uncertainty over inflation durability.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日利上げ
新規
新規
2028/12/31
利上げ
新規
新規
2028/12/31
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
This market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”.
Any decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent inflation pressures from elevated energy prices tied to Middle East tensions have shifted trader focus toward a potential Fed rate hike as the next policy move, with the federal funds target currently held at 3.50%-3.75% following the July 29 FOMC decision. A 9-3 vote included three dissents favoring an immediate increase, reflecting hawkish concerns that supply shocks could reaccelerate price growth beyond the 2% goal, as noted in official statements. CME FedWatch Tool pricing and the June dot plot—showing nine participants projecting at least one 2026 hike—support the 58% market-implied probability for a hike, driven by resilient economic data including solid GDP expansion, strong productivity, and stable labor markets. The September FOMC meeting stands as the primary near-term catalyst that could confirm or alter this consensus amid ongoing uncertainty over inflation durability.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
This market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”.
Any decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
This market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”.
Any decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
マーケット開始日： Jul 14, 2026, 12:15 PM ET
音量
$970終了日
2028/12/31マーケット開始日
Jul 14, 2026, 12:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
This market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”.
Any decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent inflation pressures from elevated energy prices tied to Middle East tensions have shifted trader focus toward a potential Fed rate hike as the next policy move, with the federal funds target currently held at 3.50%-3.75% following the July 29 FOMC decision. A 9-3 vote included three dissents favoring an immediate increase, reflecting hawkish concerns that supply shocks could reaccelerate price growth beyond the 2% goal, as noted in official statements. CME FedWatch Tool pricing and the June dot plot—showing nine participants projecting at least one 2026 hike—support the 58% market-implied probability for a hike, driven by resilient economic data including solid GDP expansion, strong productivity, and stable labor markets. The September FOMC meeting stands as the primary near-term catalyst that could confirm or alter this consensus amid ongoing uncertainty over inflation durability.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
This market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”.
Any decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
This market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”.
Any decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
音量
$970終了日
2028/12/31マーケット開始日
Jul 14, 2026, 12:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent inflation pressures from elevated energy prices tied to Middle East tensions have shifted trader focus toward a potential Fed rate hike as the next policy move, with the federal funds target currently held at 3.50%-3.75% following the July 29 FOMC decision. A 9-3 vote included three dissents favoring an immediate increase, reflecting hawkish concerns that supply shocks could reaccelerate price growth beyond the 2% goal, as noted in official statements. CME FedWatch Tool pricing and the June dot plot—showing nine participants projecting at least one 2026 hike—support the 58% market-implied probability for a hike, driven by resilient economic data including solid GDP expansion, strong productivity, and stable labor markets. The September FOMC meeting stands as the primary near-term catalyst that could confirm or alter this consensus amid ongoing uncertainty over inflation durability.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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