Recent US and Israeli strikes have substantially degraded Iran's nuclear facilities and expertise, leaving the program in a damaged state with unverified stockpiles of enriched uranium and no confirmed weaponization steps. Heightened IAEA scrutiny, referral to the UN Security Council, and international pressure further constrain rapid advancement toward a test in the brief window before 2027. Official Iranian statements continue to affirm a peaceful program, despite isolated domestic calls for doctrinal shifts that have not translated into parliamentary action. Trader consensus at 95.5% for no test reflects these structural barriers, though undetected reconstitution at hardened sites like Pickaxe Mountain or sudden policy reversal amid renewed conflict could still alter the outcome.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
5% 確率
$258,465 Vol.
$258,465 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
5% 確率
$258,465 Vol.
$258,465 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent US and Israeli strikes have substantially degraded Iran's nuclear facilities and expertise, leaving the program in a damaged state with unverified stockpiles of enriched uranium and no confirmed weaponization steps. Heightened IAEA scrutiny, referral to the UN Security Council, and international pressure further constrain rapid advancement toward a test in the brief window before 2027. Official Iranian statements continue to affirm a peaceful program, despite isolated domestic calls for doctrinal shifts that have not translated into parliamentary action. Trader consensus at 95.5% for no test reflects these structural barriers, though undetected reconstitution at hardened sites like Pickaxe Mountain or sudden policy reversal amid renewed conflict could still alter the outcome.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
音量
$258,465終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent US and Israeli strikes have substantially degraded Iran's nuclear facilities and expertise, leaving the program in a damaged state with unverified stockpiles of enriched uranium and no confirmed weaponization steps. Heightened IAEA scrutiny, referral to the UN Security Council, and international pressure further constrain rapid advancement toward a test in the brief window before 2027. Official Iranian statements continue to affirm a peaceful program, despite isolated domestic calls for doctrinal shifts that have not translated into parliamentary action. Trader consensus at 95.5% for no test reflects these structural barriers, though undetected reconstitution at hardened sites like Pickaxe Mountain or sudden policy reversal amid renewed conflict could still alter the outcome.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$258,465終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Recent US and Israeli strikes have substantially degraded Iran's nuclear facilities and expertise, leaving the program in a damaged state with unverified stockpiles of enriched uranium and no confirmed weaponization steps. Heightened IAEA scrutiny, referral to the UN Security Council, and international pressure further constrain rapid advancement toward a test in the brief window before 2027. Official Iranian statements continue to affirm a peaceful program, despite isolated domestic calls for doctrinal shifts that have not translated into parliamentary action. Trader consensus at 95.5% for no test reflects these structural barriers, though undetected reconstitution at hardened sites like Pickaxe Mountain or sudden policy reversal amid renewed conflict could still alter the outcome.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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