Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February 2026 targeted Iranian enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, significantly damaging infrastructure and delaying any path to weapons-grade material or testing. IAEA assessments through mid-2026 report no structured weaponization program, no evidence of an imminent device, and continued lack of full inspector access, while noting Iran's 60% enrichment stockpile and reconstruction at select sites like Taleghan 2 and Pickaxe Mountain. These military degradations, combined with sanctions, diplomatic pressure, and leadership transitions following the strikes, underpin trader consensus that a nuclear test remains unlikely before 2027 absent major undetected shifts in Iran's posture.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$206,740 Vol.
$206,740 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
$206,740 Vol.
$206,740 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February 2026 targeted Iranian enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, significantly damaging infrastructure and delaying any path to weapons-grade material or testing. IAEA assessments through mid-2026 report no structured weaponization program, no evidence of an imminent device, and continued lack of full inspector access, while noting Iran's 60% enrichment stockpile and reconstruction at select sites like Taleghan 2 and Pickaxe Mountain. These military degradations, combined with sanctions, diplomatic pressure, and leadership transitions following the strikes, underpin trader consensus that a nuclear test remains unlikely before 2027 absent major undetected shifts in Iran's posture.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
音量
$206,740終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February 2026 targeted Iranian enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, significantly damaging infrastructure and delaying any path to weapons-grade material or testing. IAEA assessments through mid-2026 report no structured weaponization program, no evidence of an imminent device, and continued lack of full inspector access, while noting Iran's 60% enrichment stockpile and reconstruction at select sites like Taleghan 2 and Pickaxe Mountain. These military degradations, combined with sanctions, diplomatic pressure, and leadership transitions following the strikes, underpin trader consensus that a nuclear test remains unlikely before 2027 absent major undetected shifts in Iran's posture.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$206,740終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February 2026 targeted Iranian enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, significantly damaging infrastructure and delaying any path to weapons-grade material or testing. IAEA assessments through mid-2026 report no structured weaponization program, no evidence of an imminent device, and continued lack of full inspector access, while noting Iran's 60% enrichment stockpile and reconstruction at select sites like Taleghan 2 and Pickaxe Mountain. These military degradations, combined with sanctions, diplomatic pressure, and leadership transitions following the strikes, underpin trader consensus that a nuclear test remains unlikely before 2027 absent major undetected shifts in Iran's posture.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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