Trader consensus strongly favors no Iranian nuclear test before 2027, reflecting U.S. intelligence assessments through early 2026 affirming Tehran is not actively pursuing weaponization despite a stockpile exceeding 6,000 kg of 60% highly enriched uranium—enough for multiple devices if diverted. IAEA February 2026 safeguards reports highlight ongoing access denials to enrichment sites like Fordow but detect no diversion to military use or test preparations, while 2025 U.S. strikes significantly degraded key facilities, delaying breakout timelines amid intensified sanctions and naval blockades. Failed 2025-2026 nuclear negotiations and persistent IAEA scrutiny reinforce substantial barriers, though escalation signals or leadership shifts could prompt rapid changes before year-end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$180,048 Vol.
$180,048 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
$180,048 Vol.
$180,048 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus strongly favors no Iranian nuclear test before 2027, reflecting U.S. intelligence assessments through early 2026 affirming Tehran is not actively pursuing weaponization despite a stockpile exceeding 6,000 kg of 60% highly enriched uranium—enough for multiple devices if diverted. IAEA February 2026 safeguards reports highlight ongoing access denials to enrichment sites like Fordow but detect no diversion to military use or test preparations, while 2025 U.S. strikes significantly degraded key facilities, delaying breakout timelines amid intensified sanctions and naval blockades. Failed 2025-2026 nuclear negotiations and persistent IAEA scrutiny reinforce substantial barriers, though escalation signals or leadership shifts could prompt rapid changes before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
音量
$180,048終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus strongly favors no Iranian nuclear test before 2027, reflecting U.S. intelligence assessments through early 2026 affirming Tehran is not actively pursuing weaponization despite a stockpile exceeding 6,000 kg of 60% highly enriched uranium—enough for multiple devices if diverted. IAEA February 2026 safeguards reports highlight ongoing access denials to enrichment sites like Fordow but detect no diversion to military use or test preparations, while 2025 U.S. strikes significantly degraded key facilities, delaying breakout timelines amid intensified sanctions and naval blockades. Failed 2025-2026 nuclear negotiations and persistent IAEA scrutiny reinforce substantial barriers, though escalation signals or leadership shifts could prompt rapid changes before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$180,048終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus strongly favors no Iranian nuclear test before 2027, reflecting U.S. intelligence assessments through early 2026 affirming Tehran is not actively pursuing weaponization despite a stockpile exceeding 6,000 kg of 60% highly enriched uranium—enough for multiple devices if diverted. IAEA February 2026 safeguards reports highlight ongoing access denials to enrichment sites like Fordow but detect no diversion to military use or test preparations, while 2025 U.S. strikes significantly degraded key facilities, delaying breakout timelines amid intensified sanctions and naval blockades. Failed 2025-2026 nuclear negotiations and persistent IAEA scrutiny reinforce substantial barriers, though escalation signals or leadership shifts could prompt rapid changes before year-end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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