Recent military strikes by the United States and Israel have substantially damaged Iran's nuclear facilities and enrichment infrastructure, leaving the program in a degraded state with limited operational centrifuges and unresolved questions over stockpiles of highly enriched uranium. IAEA inspections remain restricted, prompting the agency to refer compliance concerns to the UN Security Council in September 2026, while Iranian officials reaffirm NPT commitments and reject weaponization claims. Construction activity at sites like Pickaxe Mountain reflects efforts to rebuild capabilities but occurs amid active diplomatic standoffs and verification demands. Trader consensus at 95.5% against a test before 2027 reflects these constraints and the absence of verified breakout indicators. Shifts could arise from NPT withdrawal, accelerated reconstruction, or renewed escalation in regional conflicts that alter decision timelines.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
5% 確率
$258,465 Vol.
$258,465 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
5% 確率
$258,465 Vol.
$258,465 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent military strikes by the United States and Israel have substantially damaged Iran's nuclear facilities and enrichment infrastructure, leaving the program in a degraded state with limited operational centrifuges and unresolved questions over stockpiles of highly enriched uranium. IAEA inspections remain restricted, prompting the agency to refer compliance concerns to the UN Security Council in September 2026, while Iranian officials reaffirm NPT commitments and reject weaponization claims. Construction activity at sites like Pickaxe Mountain reflects efforts to rebuild capabilities but occurs amid active diplomatic standoffs and verification demands. Trader consensus at 95.5% against a test before 2027 reflects these constraints and the absence of verified breakout indicators. Shifts could arise from NPT withdrawal, accelerated reconstruction, or renewed escalation in regional conflicts that alter decision timelines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
音量
$258,465終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent military strikes by the United States and Israel have substantially damaged Iran's nuclear facilities and enrichment infrastructure, leaving the program in a degraded state with limited operational centrifuges and unresolved questions over stockpiles of highly enriched uranium. IAEA inspections remain restricted, prompting the agency to refer compliance concerns to the UN Security Council in September 2026, while Iranian officials reaffirm NPT commitments and reject weaponization claims. Construction activity at sites like Pickaxe Mountain reflects efforts to rebuild capabilities but occurs amid active diplomatic standoffs and verification demands. Trader consensus at 95.5% against a test before 2027 reflects these constraints and the absence of verified breakout indicators. Shifts could arise from NPT withdrawal, accelerated reconstruction, or renewed escalation in regional conflicts that alter decision timelines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$258,465終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Recent military strikes by the United States and Israel have substantially damaged Iran's nuclear facilities and enrichment infrastructure, leaving the program in a degraded state with limited operational centrifuges and unresolved questions over stockpiles of highly enriched uranium. IAEA inspections remain restricted, prompting the agency to refer compliance concerns to the UN Security Council in September 2026, while Iranian officials reaffirm NPT commitments and reject weaponization claims. Construction activity at sites like Pickaxe Mountain reflects efforts to rebuild capabilities but occurs amid active diplomatic standoffs and verification demands. Trader consensus at 95.5% against a test before 2027 reflects these constraints and the absence of verified breakout indicators. Shifts could arise from NPT withdrawal, accelerated reconstruction, or renewed escalation in regional conflicts that alter decision timelines.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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