Trader consensus prices an 83.5% implied probability on "No" new country joining the Abraham Accords by June 30, reflecting stalled diplomatic momentum despite US congressional pushes like the March 26 Abraham Accords Defense Cooperation Act led by Senators Budd and Ernst to deepen security ties among existing signatories—UAE, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan. Saudi Arabia remains the prime candidate but continues to condition normalization on Palestinian statehood progress amid lingering Gaza war repercussions, with no official announcements or breakthroughs in the past 30 days. Recent focus has shifted to defense-industrial partnerships rather than fresh bilateral agreements, underscoring significant barriers to expansion before the deadline.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/06/30
新規
新規
2026/06/30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus prices an 83.5% implied probability on "No" new country joining the Abraham Accords by June 30, reflecting stalled diplomatic momentum despite US congressional pushes like the March 26 Abraham Accords Defense Cooperation Act led by Senators Budd and Ernst to deepen security ties among existing signatories—UAE, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan. Saudi Arabia remains the prime candidate but continues to condition normalization on Palestinian statehood progress amid lingering Gaza war repercussions, with no official announcements or breakthroughs in the past 30 days. Recent focus has shifted to defense-industrial partnerships rather than fresh bilateral agreements, underscoring significant barriers to expansion before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Apr 1, 2026, 2:04 PM ET
音量
$505終了日
2026/06/30マーケット開始日
Apr 1, 2026, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus prices an 83.5% implied probability on "No" new country joining the Abraham Accords by June 30, reflecting stalled diplomatic momentum despite US congressional pushes like the March 26 Abraham Accords Defense Cooperation Act led by Senators Budd and Ernst to deepen security ties among existing signatories—UAE, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan. Saudi Arabia remains the prime candidate but continues to condition normalization on Palestinian statehood progress amid lingering Gaza war repercussions, with no official announcements or breakthroughs in the past 30 days. Recent focus has shifted to defense-industrial partnerships rather than fresh bilateral agreements, underscoring significant barriers to expansion before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$505終了日
2026/06/30マーケット開始日
Apr 1, 2026, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices an 83.5% implied probability on "No" new country joining the Abraham Accords by June 30, reflecting stalled diplomatic momentum despite US congressional pushes like the March 26 Abraham Accords Defense Cooperation Act led by Senators Budd and Ernst to deepen security ties among existing signatories—UAE, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan. Saudi Arabia remains the prime candidate but continues to condition normalization on Palestinian statehood progress amid lingering Gaza war repercussions, with no official announcements or breakthroughs in the past 30 days. Recent focus has shifted to defense-industrial partnerships rather than fresh bilateral agreements, underscoring significant barriers to expansion before the deadline.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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