Traders assign a 69.5% implied probability to no new country joining the Abraham Accords before 2027 because recent normalization momentum has stalled amid persistent regional constraints. Kazakhstan acceded in late 2025 and Somaliland pledged following Israeli recognition that same month, yet major candidates such as Saudi Arabia continue to condition any deal on concrete steps toward a Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital. Syria and Lebanon face domestic instability and ongoing Israeli military operations that have blocked progress despite U.S. diplomatic engagement. Sudan’s earlier agreement remains unratified due to internal conflict, while broader U.S. and Israeli efforts to expand the framework have yielded no additional formal accessions in 2026. These entrenched diplomatic and security hurdles underpin the current trader consensus reflected in the market pricing.