Tensions over the sequencing of Hamas disarmament and Israeli troop withdrawal from Gaza remain the central driver of ceasefire fragility under the U.S.-brokered 20-point plan. The October 2025 truce advanced to its second phase in January 2026 after hostage returns, yet repeated Israeli strikes, reported violations by both sides, and stalled talks on governance and demilitarization have persisted. A late July 2026 announcement of Hamas agreement to disarm contingent on Israeli withdrawal and strike cessation has drawn cautious responses, with Israel conditioning any pullback on verified disarmament first. These dynamics, alongside the Board of Peace efforts and humanitarian pressures, shape trader assessments of which actor or impasse is most likely to end the current arrangement.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Israeli officials commemorate 1,000 days since October 7 attacks amid ongoing conflict
December 31 plunges to 30%19%
Israeli commemoration of the 1,000 days since the October 7 attacks highlighted the prolonged conflict and ongoing tensions, with no official ceasefire cancellation announced, contributing to market price stabilization at low levels.
Israeli Finance Minister Smotrich announces readiness to build three settlements in Gaza
June 30 dips to 1%1%
Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich declared that Israel is ready to begin building three Jewish settlements in northern Gaza once government approval is granted. This move reflects Israeli expansionist policies during the ceasefire period but does not constitute an official cancellation of the ceasefire by either party.
Israeli forces continue strikes in Gaza despite ceasefire; UN reports ongoing violations
June 30 dips to 1%2%
Israeli strikes in Gaza continued during the nominal ceasefire, causing casualties and humanitarian concerns. The UN reported expansion of Israeli control and violations along the ceasefire line. However, no official announcement from Israel or Hamas declared the ceasefire cancelled, so the market continued to price low probability of cancellation.
IDF warns Hamas is preparing to return to war; US opposes new Israeli offensive
June 30 rises to 12%2%
The Israeli Defense Forces warned that Hamas is rebuilding military infrastructure and preparing for renewed conflict, but the US opposed a new Israeli offensive, preferring to maintain the ceasefire and advance peace plans. This indicated ongoing tensions but no official ceasefire cancellation, contributing to market uncertainty and a slight price fluctuation.
Israeli military airstrikes kill Palestinian in Gaza amid ongoing ceasefire violations
June 30 dips to 0%1%
Israeli airstrikes continued in Gaza, killing a Palestinian man and underscoring ongoing ceasefire violations. These actions maintained pressure on the ceasefire's stability and contributed to market declines in ceasefire cancellation probability.
Arab Group and OIC halt annexation activity, condemning Israeli actions amid ongoing conflict
June 30 jumps to 19%8%
The Arab Group and Organization of Islamic Cooperation issued a joint press release halting annexation activities and condemning Israeli attacks, reflecting regional diplomatic tensions and ongoing conflict dynamics that influenced market sentiment.
Palestinian death toll rises amid ongoing Israeli strikes despite ceasefire
June 30 dips to 1%4%
Despite the fragile ceasefire, Israeli strikes continued killing Palestinians in Gaza, with the death toll surpassing 73,000 since the war began. Both sides accused each other of violations, but no official ceasefire cancellation was declared by Israel or Hamas.
Hamas reports progress in Cairo talks on Gaza ceasefire implementation
June 30 dips to 10%1%
Hamas announced acceptable approaches had been reached on contentious issues of the Gaza ceasefire following talks in Cairo. The discussions focused on humanitarian aid, reconstruction, and Israeli withdrawal, signaling some diplomatic progress though the ceasefire remained fragile.
Hamas and Israel trade accusations over ceasefire breaches amid stalled talks
June 30 dips to 12%2%
In early June 2026, Hamas and Israel exchanged accusations of ceasefire violations, with Hamas condemning Israeli strikes on Gaza residential areas and Israel reporting attacks on its forces. Despite these tensions and stalled Phase II negotiations, no definitive ceasefire cancellation was announced.
Cairo talks on ceasefire implementation highlight stalled progress and ongoing disputes
June 30 dips to 6%4%
In early June 2026, mediators held talks in Cairo focusing on aid corridors, border reopenings, and ceasefire violation complaints. However, core disagreements over sequencing and disarmament persisted, maintaining uncertainty about the ceasefire's durability and contributing to cautious market sentiment.
Hamas military chief killed by Israeli strike amid ceasefire violations
June 30 dips to 0%1%
Israel killed the head of Hamas's military wing in Gaza, continuing strikes despite the ceasefire. This highlighted ongoing hostilities and violations, undermining the ceasefire's stability.
Hamas accuses Israel of blatant ceasefire violation over Gaza advances
June 30 rises to 15%2%
On May 24, 2026, Hamas publicly condemned Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu's order to expand military control over 70% of Gaza, calling it a blatant violation of the ceasefire. This accusation reflected ongoing tensions and mutual ceasefire breaches, but no official cancellation announcement was made.
Israel and Hamas trade accusations over ceasefire breaches amid ongoing violence
Both Israel and Hamas accused each other of violating the ceasefire, with Israel citing strikes against terrorists and Hamas condemning Israeli military actions, reflecting the fragile and contested nature of the ceasefire.
Hamas accuses Israel of violating ceasefire with strikes on Gaza residential buildings
Hamas publicly accused Israel of breaching the ceasefire through military operations causing civilian displacement, highlighting ongoing tensions and mutual accusations undermining ceasefire implementation.
Hamas and Israel trade accusations over ceasefire breaches
On May 24, 2026, Hamas accused Israel of violating the ceasefire through military operations causing civilian displacement, while Israel reported killing terrorists in response. These mutual accusations highlighted ongoing tensions but no official cancellation of the ceasefire was announced.
Israel escalates attacks in Gaza amid ceasefire tensions
June 30 dips to 13%3%
Israel increased airstrikes in Gaza, citing imminent threats and Hamas rearming, while maintaining the ceasefire officially. This escalation raised fears of ceasefire breakdown but no formal cancellation was declared by either side.
Israel kills Hamas military wing leader Haddad in Gaza strike
June 30 dips to 3%4%
On May 15, 2026, Israel conducted an airstrike killing Izz al-Din al-Haddad, chief of Hamas' military wing, marking a significant escalation and a breach of the ceasefire. This strike underscored ongoing violations and tensions despite the ceasefire agreement, contributing to market uncertainty about ceasefire stability.
Israeli strikes continue amid fragile ceasefire and stalled disarmament talks
June 30 jumps to 14%5%
Israeli airstrikes and military operations continued in Gaza despite the ceasefire, while Hamas refused to disarm as required. The fragile truce faces increasing pressure, but no official announcement from either side has declared the ceasefire cancelled.
Board of Peace envoy states ceasefire stalled due to Hamas disarmament deadlock
June 30 drops to 14%5%
Nickolay Mladenov, the US-backed Board of Peace envoy, said the ceasefire was paralyzed because Hamas had not disarmed, calling disarmament "not negotiable." This official statement highlighted the fragility of the ceasefire and contributed to market uncertainty.
Board of Peace envoy says ceasefire stalled over Hamas disarmament
June 30 drops to 16%5%
Nickolay Mladenov, the US-backed Board of Peace envoy, stated the ceasefire was paralyzed due to Hamas not disarming, which stalled reconstruction and troop withdrawals. Hamas blamed Israel for violations, but no official ceasefire cancellation was announced, maintaining market uncertainty.
Israel warns ceasefire void if Hamas refuses disarmament proposal
June 30 dips to 7%3%
On May 10, 2026, Israel, via the U.S.-backed Board of Peace, warned that failure by Hamas to accept a disarmament proposal would render the October 2025 ceasefire null and void. This formal warning highlighted stalled talks and Israel's position that ceasefire commitments depend on Hamas disarming, increasing cancellation risk perceptions.
Israel declares ceasefire void if Hamas refuses to disarm
June 30 dips to 1%2%
A letter from the US-backed Board of Peace warned that Israel is not obligated to uphold the ceasefire if Hamas does not accept disarmament, effectively giving Israel a basis to void the ceasefire. This escalated tensions and increased the risk of ceasefire collapse.
Israel threatens Gaza war resumption to force Hamas disarmament
June 30 jumps to 20%10%
Israeli military officials warned of an almost inevitable new round of fighting due to Hamas' refusal to disarm and failures of the ceasefire's enforcement mechanisms. Israeli forces expanded control in Gaza, increasing tensions but no official ceasefire cancellation was declared.
Israeli military official warns of imminent renewed Gaza fighting over Hamas disarmament refusal
June 30 drops to 13%10%
An Israeli military General Staff official stated that another round of fighting was "almost inevitable" due to Hamas's refusal to surrender weapons and the failure of the International Stabilization Force. This heightened fears of ceasefire collapse, impacting market prices negatively for June 30.
UN official warns Gaza ceasefire increasingly fragile amid ongoing Israeli strikes and Hamas armed activities
Assistant Secretary-General Khaled Khiari briefed the UN Security Council that the ceasefire was fragile due to continued Israeli airstrikes and armed activities by Hamas, with no agreement on disarmament, raising concerns about potential return to widespread hostilities.
Israeli airstrikes kill Palestinians amid ceasefire talks with Hamas
June 30 dips to 26%2%
Israeli airstrikes killed at least four Palestinians in Gaza while mediators met with Hamas leaders to shore up the fragile ceasefire. The strikes underscored the ongoing violations and fragility of the truce despite diplomatic efforts.
Netanyahu publicly states no ceasefire currently in effect on Lebanon front
June 30 jumps to 29%7%
On April 10, 2026, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu publicly stated that 'no ceasefire' is currently in effect for the Lebanon front, signaling a collapse of regional restraint. This statement affected market perceptions of ceasefire stability but did not confirm cancellation of the Israel-Hamas ceasefire.
Hamas disarmament deadline expires; Israel prepares to resume Gaza war
June 30 dips to 28%3%
The US-imposed deadline for Hamas to accept disarmament expired without agreement, with Israel preparing for renewed combat operations. This raised fears of ceasefire collapse but no official cancellation was announced, causing market uncertainty.
Israel orders massive bombardment of Lebanon despite temporary regional ceasefire
June 30 drops to 22%9%
On April 8, 2026, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu ordered 'Operation Eternal Darkness,' a massive bombardment of Lebanon that occurred despite a temporary regional ceasefire. This military escalation indicated that no ceasefire was in effect on that front, but no official cancellation of the Gaza ceasefire was announced.
Fragile two-week ceasefire between US and Iran ends without deal, naval blockade begins
June 30 jumps to 41%10%
A fragile two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran starting April 8 ended without a deal after 21 hours of talks, leading to a US naval blockade of Iranian ports from April 13. This failure of diplomacy increased regional tensions but did not directly cancel the Israel-Hamas ceasefire.
Hamas refuses to discuss disarmament without Israeli withdrawal guarantees
June 30 dips to 28%2%
Hamas told mediators it will not consider disarming unless Israel fully withdraws from Gaza as outlined in the disarmament plan. This stance has stalled progress on implementing the second phase of the ceasefire agreement, contributing to ongoing tensions.
Israeli troops continue operations as ceasefire remains shaky but largely holds
Despite ongoing Israeli military operations against Hamas in Gaza and diplomatic efforts for disarmament, the ceasefire largely held through March 2026, reflecting a fragile but sustained truce without official cancellation announcements.
US Ambassador urges Hamas to decommission weapons for Gaza rebuilding
June 30 jumps to 30%11%
US Ambassador to the UN Mike Waltz emphasized that Hamas must disarm to enable Gaza's reconstruction, reinforcing international pressure on Hamas and Israel to uphold ceasefire terms amid ongoing low-level clashes and Israeli operations.
Israel resumes military operations in Gaza, ending January ceasefire
On March 18, 2026, Israel launched extensive airstrikes on Gaza, officially ending the ceasefire that began in January 2025. Israel cited Hamas's refusal to release hostages and rejection of ceasefire extension proposals as justification. This marked a significant escalation and collapse of the previous truce.
Israel resumes extensive strikes on Hamas targets, ending previous ceasefire agreement
Israel announced extensive strikes on Hamas terror targets in Gaza, effectively ending the ceasefire agreement that had been in place since January 15, 2025, escalating conflict and undermining ceasefire stability.
Israel launches strikes ending previous ceasefire agreement
June 30 surges to 50%32%
Israel announced extensive strikes on Hamas targets in Gaza, effectively ending a prior ceasefire agreement from January. This military action increased tensions but did not constitute an official cancellation of the ongoing ceasefire signed in October 2025.
Iran announces missile payload increase to one ton, signaling escalation
June 30 dips to 19%4%
Iran's Revolutionary Guard Aerospace Forces Commander Majid Mousavi stated that 'all missiles will carry a payload of no less than one ton', signaling an escalation in Iran's offensive capability.
Iran rejects US ceasefire, threatens escalation against US, British and French bases
June 30 drops to 23%7%
Iran categorically rejected the ceasefire announced by Trump, calling it 'humiliating' and 'illegitimate', and announced it would attack US, British and French military bases in the region if operations continue.
Israel and Hamas signal readiness to negotiate second phase of ceasefire
June 30 rises to 31%3%
Both Israel and Hamas indicated willingness to negotiate the second phase of the ceasefire, with Hamas calling for lifting the blockade and Israel sending a delegation to Doha. Despite ongoing talks, Israeli strikes continued, reflecting the fragile nature of the ceasefire without official cancellation.
Six American soldiers killed in Iran conflict, bodies repatriated with honors
June 30 plunges to 39%17%
By March 7, 2026, six American soldiers had died in the ongoing US-Iran conflict, with their bodies repatriated with honors. This highlighted the conflict's severity and contributed to increased regional tensions, influencing market sentiment on the ceasefire's viability.
US and Israel launch large-scale military strikes on Iran, killing Supreme Leader Khamenei
June 30 surges to 56%27%
On February 28, 2026, the US and Israel launched coordinated airstrikes on Iran, killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and crippling much of Iran's military infrastructure. This major escalation shifted regional dynamics, indirectly affecting the Israel-Hamas ceasefire market by increasing regional instability.
Israeli strikes kill at least 10 in Lebanon targeting Hezbollah and Hamas sites post-ceasefire
June 30 drops to 27%12%
On February 21, 2026, Israel conducted airstrikes in Lebanon targeting Hezbollah and Hamas sites, killing at least 10 people. This military action occurred despite the ceasefire agreement, escalating tensions and raising concerns about the ceasefire's stability, impacting market perceptions of ceasefire durability.
Hamas rejects Netanyahu aide’s 60-day ultimatum to disarm
June 30 drops to 19%11%
Hamas publicly rejected the Israeli ultimatum demanding disarmament within 60 days, warning of serious regional repercussions and signaling resistance to ceasefire terms, which contributed to market uncertainty about ceasefire durability.
Hamas delays next Israeli hostage release, citing Israeli ceasefire violations
June 30 drops to 22%8%
Hamas announced a delay in the planned release of Israeli hostages, accusing Israel of violating the ceasefire. This move threatened the continuation of the six-week truce and led to emergency meetings by Israeli leadership, highlighting tensions but not an official cancellation of the ceasefire.
Israel recovers remains of last hostage, clearing way for phase two of ceasefire
June 30 jumps to 38%8%
Israel announced the recovery of the last hostage's remains from Gaza, removing a major obstacle to advancing the ceasefire's second phase involving disarmament and governance changes. Hamas confirmed commitment to phase one obligations, supporting ceasefire continuation.
Netanyahu announces next ceasefire phase to focus on demilitarizing Gaza
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated that the next phase of the ceasefire would involve disarming Hamas and demilitarizing Gaza, signaling increased tensions and challenges to the ceasefire's durability.
Netanyahu states next ceasefire phase is disarming Hamas, not reconstruction
June 30 jumps to 38%8%
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu declared that the next phase of the ceasefire focuses on disarming Hamas and demilitarizing Gaza, emphasizing ongoing security concerns and setting conditions for ceasefire progress, impacting market perceptions of ceasefire stability.
Palestinians in Gaza confront reality behind ceasefire’s second phase
June 30 dips to 33%4%
The newly formed Palestinian technocratic committee began managing Gaza's day-to-day affairs under the ceasefire's second phase, but Israeli control over crossings and continued attacks hindered aid and reconstruction. The ongoing violence and restrictions cast doubt on the ceasefire's effectiveness and future stability.
Israeli attacks kill several Palestinians as Gaza governance committee meets in Cairo
June 30 surges to 41%17%
Despite the ceasefire and the start of phase two of the peace plan, Israeli attacks killed multiple Palestinians in Gaza, including children and elderly, indicating ongoing violence and ceasefire violations. Hamas accused Israel of new violations, maintaining tension and uncertainty about the ceasefire's durability.
Gaza ceasefire enters phase two despite unresolved disputes between Israel and Hamas
June 30 rises to 39%3%
A US-backed plan to end the Gaza war entered its second phase despite unresolved disputes over ceasefire violations, Israeli withdrawal, and Hamas disarmament. This development indicated the ceasefire was still officially in place but highlighted ongoing tensions and lack of full implementation, affecting market confidence.
US announces commencement of second phase of Gaza ceasefire plan
June 30 drops to 44%9%
US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff announced the start of the second phase of the ceasefire plan involving discussions on Hamas disarmament and Israeli withdrawal, but negotiations stalled amid ongoing Israeli strikes and Hamas refusal to disarm, maintaining the ceasefire without cancellation.
US announces transition to second phase of Gaza ceasefire plan
June 30 drops to 45%8%
US envoy Steve Witkoff announced the move to phase two of the Gaza ceasefire plan, focusing on disarmament of Hamas and governance changes, signaling a key diplomatic step but met with skepticism due to unresolved root causes. This announcement influenced market expectations about the ceasefire's durability.
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