Trader consensus heavily favors no Iranian nuclear weapon before 2027, driven by US-Israeli airstrikes in early 2026 that destroyed key enrichment infrastructure like Natanz's pilot fuel enrichment plant, per IAEA updates. Recent IAEA reports from February and March highlight uncertainty over Iran's 440+ kg stockpile of 60% enriched uranium—possibly relocated underground at Isfahan—but confirm no verified weaponization activities or restarts to weapons-grade levels, aligning with Iran's April envoy statement against bomb-level enrichment. US intelligence assessments reiterate Tehran has not decided to build a bomb, while post-war diplomacy, including UN calls for inspections in potential ceasefires, reinforces barriers amid damaged capabilities and sanctions. Late escalations or hidden breakthroughs could shift odds, but current evidence supports restraint.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$562,723 Vol.
$562,723 Vol.
はい
$562,723 Vol.
$562,723 Vol.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
マーケット開始日: Nov 13, 2025, 5:50 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus heavily favors no Iranian nuclear weapon before 2027, driven by US-Israeli airstrikes in early 2026 that destroyed key enrichment infrastructure like Natanz's pilot fuel enrichment plant, per IAEA updates. Recent IAEA reports from February and March highlight uncertainty over Iran's 440+ kg stockpile of 60% enriched uranium—possibly relocated underground at Isfahan—but confirm no verified weaponization activities or restarts to weapons-grade levels, aligning with Iran's April envoy statement against bomb-level enrichment. US intelligence assessments reiterate Tehran has not decided to build a bomb, while post-war diplomacy, including UN calls for inspections in potential ceasefires, reinforces barriers amid damaged capabilities and sanctions. Late escalations or hidden breakthroughs could shift odds, but current evidence supports restraint.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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