U.S. and Israeli airstrikes in late February 2026 targeted Iran's key nuclear facilities at Natanz, Fordow, Isfahan, and Parchin, destroying aboveground enrichment infrastructure and setting back Tehran's breakout time—previously estimated at 1-3 months—to several years, per IAEA assessments and U.S. intelligence. IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi confirmed on April 4 no structured nuclear weapons program or imminent bomb capability, with inspections ongoing at undamaged sites amid a fragile U.S.-Iran ceasefire. Recent diplomatic proposals, including Iran's rejected offer to suspend enrichment for five years, reflect stalled talks demanding full dismantlement, reinforcing trader consensus at 90.5% for "No" on a pre-2027 nuclear detonation despite hardliner rhetoric. Late escalations or covert rebuilding could shift odds.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$563,149 Vol.
$563,149 Vol.
はい
$563,149 Vol.
$563,149 Vol.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
マーケット開始日： Nov 13, 2025, 5:50 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Resolver
0x65070BE91...U.S. and Israeli airstrikes in late February 2026 targeted Iran's key nuclear facilities at Natanz, Fordow, Isfahan, and Parchin, destroying aboveground enrichment infrastructure and setting back Tehran's breakout time—previously estimated at 1-3 months—to several years, per IAEA assessments and U.S. intelligence. IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi confirmed on April 4 no structured nuclear weapons program or imminent bomb capability, with inspections ongoing at undamaged sites amid a fragile U.S.-Iran ceasefire. Recent diplomatic proposals, including Iran's rejected offer to suspend enrichment for five years, reflect stalled talks demanding full dismantlement, reinforcing trader consensus at 90.5% for "No" on a pre-2027 nuclear detonation despite hardliner rhetoric. Late escalations or covert rebuilding could shift odds.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問