Xi Jinping’s consolidated authority across the Chinese Communist Party, Central Military Commission, and state institutions underpins the 95.5% trader consensus that he will not be removed before the end of 2026. With no designated successor and elite politics showing no public factional challenges or health signals through mid-2026, recent personnel decisions and policy continuity point toward a fourth term beginning at the scheduled 2027 Party Congress rather than abrupt departure. Leadership transitions in China have historically occurred at these congresses, and the absence of visible opposition or institutional pressure reinforces market pricing. Low-probability shifts could still arise from a sudden medical event, a major economic crisis triggering elite realignment, or an unforeseen external shock altering internal dynamics before December 31, 2026.