Trader consensus heavily favors no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by end-2027, with 75.5% odds on "No," driven by the absence of verifiable invasion preparations from Beijing despite routine PLA military drills in the Taiwan Strait. Recent developments, including post-inauguration exercises after President Lai Ching-te's May 2024 speech and China's emphasis on "peaceful reunification" in official statements, signal calibrated pressure rather than imminent aggression. Strengthening U.S. deterrence via arms sales and alliances like AUKUS, alongside China's economic interdependence with Taiwan and ongoing PLA modernization targeted for 2027 completion, underscore high invasion costs and strategic patience, tempering cross-strait escalation risks ahead of key events like the 2024 U.S. election.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日はい
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2027
はい
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
マーケット開始日： Mar 17, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
音量
$80終了日
Dec 31, 2027マーケット開始日
Mar 17, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
音量
$80終了日
Dec 31, 2027マーケット開始日
Mar 17, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus heavily favors no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by end-2027, with 75.5% odds on "No," driven by the absence of verifiable invasion preparations from Beijing despite routine PLA military drills in the Taiwan Strait. Recent developments, including post-inauguration exercises after President Lai Ching-te's May 2024 speech and China's emphasis on "peaceful reunification" in official statements, signal calibrated pressure rather than imminent aggression. Strengthening U.S. deterrence via arms sales and alliances like AUKUS, alongside China's economic interdependence with Taiwan and ongoing PLA modernization targeted for 2027 completion, underscore high invasion costs and strategic patience, tempering cross-strait escalation risks ahead of key events like the 2024 U.S. election.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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