Traders assign an 88.5% implied probability that China will not invade Taiwan by the end of 2027, reflecting the consensus that Beijing continues to favor gray-zone coercion over full-scale amphibious assault. Recent months have featured sustained but routine People’s Liberation Army patrols, China Coast Guard law-enforcement operations east of the island, and incremental military exercises focused on blockade and quarantine scenarios rather than immediate landings. Taiwan has responded with its own Han Kuang drills and supplementary defense budgets aimed at drones, missiles, and readiness, while U.S.-China diplomacy, including a planned Trump-Xi summit, underscores efforts to manage tensions. Analysts note the enormous economic and military costs of invasion, ongoing PLA capability gaps, and the absence of any verified decision or timetable for kinetic unification by 2027, supporting the current market pricing.