Skip to main content

米国で取引するにはpolymarket.us

icon for 中国は2027年12月31日までに台湾に侵攻しますか?

中国は2027年12月31日までに台湾に侵攻しますか?

icon for 中国は2027年12月31日までに台湾に侵攻しますか?

中国は2027年12月31日までに台湾に侵攻しますか?

はい

12% 確率
Polymarket

$3,213,153 Vol.

はい

12% 確率
Polymarket

$3,213,153 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders assign an 88.5% implied probability that China will not invade Taiwan by the end of 2027, reflecting the consensus that Beijing continues to favor gray-zone coercion over full-scale amphibious assault. Recent months have featured sustained but routine People’s Liberation Army patrols, China Coast Guard law-enforcement operations east of the island, and incremental military exercises focused on blockade and quarantine scenarios rather than immediate landings. Taiwan has responded with its own Han Kuang drills and supplementary defense budgets aimed at drones, missiles, and readiness, while U.S.-China diplomacy, including a planned Trump-Xi summit, underscores efforts to manage tensions. Analysts note the enormous economic and military costs of invasion, ongoing PLA capability gaps, and the absence of any verified decision or timetable for kinetic unification by 2027, supporting the current market pricing.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.

The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
音量
$3,213,153
終了日
2028/01/01
マーケット開始日
Mar 17, 2026, 7:29 PM ET

リゾルバー

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders assign an 88.5% implied probability that China will not invade Taiwan by the end of 2027, reflecting the consensus that Beijing continues to favor gray-zone coercion over full-scale amphibious assault. Recent months have featured sustained but routine People’s Liberation Army patrols, China Coast Guard law-enforcement operations east of the island, and incremental military exercises focused on blockade and quarantine scenarios rather than immediate landings. Taiwan has responded with its own Han Kuang drills and supplementary defense budgets aimed at drones, missiles, and readiness, while U.S.-China diplomacy, including a planned Trump-Xi summit, underscores efforts to manage tensions. Analysts note the enormous economic and military costs of invasion, ongoing PLA capability gaps, and the absence of any verified decision or timetable for kinetic unification by 2027, supporting the current market pricing.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.

The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
音量
$3,213,153
終了日
2028/01/01
マーケット開始日
Mar 17, 2026, 7:29 PM ET

リゾルバー

0x65070BE91...

外部リンクに注意してください。

よくある質問

「中国は2027年12月31日までに台湾に侵攻しますか?」はPolymarket上の2個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「中国は2027年12月31日までに台湾に侵攻しますか?」で12%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、12¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に12%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「中国は2027年12月31日までに台湾に侵攻しますか?」は$3.2 millionの総取引量を生み出しています(Mar 17, 2026のマーケット開始以来)。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「中国は2027年12月31日までに台湾に侵攻しますか?」で取引するには、このページに記載されている2個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「中国は2027年12月31日までに台湾に侵攻しますか?」の現在のフロントランナーは「中国は2027年12月31日までに台湾に侵攻しますか?」で12%であり、市場がこの結果に12%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「中国は2027年12月31日までに台湾に侵攻しますか?」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。