US intelligence assessments from March 2026 indicate Chinese leaders have no current plan or fixed timetable for a Taiwan invasion in 2027, viewing military readiness as a capability target rather than an order. Beijing continues prioritizing blockade, quarantine, and gray-zone operations through coast guard patrols and exercises, while assessments note persistent shortfalls in amphibious lift and sustainment for a full cross-strait assault. Taiwan’s defense ministry has highlighted these gaps alongside its own steps to strengthen long-range strike options and resilience. Diplomatic activity, including a senior Taiwanese official’s recent Europe visit and signals of potential high-level US-China engagement, aligns with trader consensus that the probability of invasion by the end of 2027 remains low.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
12% 確率
$3,213,091 Vol.
$3,213,091 Vol.
2027/12/31
3.25%を獲得
はい
12% 確率
$3,213,091 Vol.
$3,213,091 Vol.
2027/12/31
3.25%を獲得
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.US intelligence assessments from March 2026 indicate Chinese leaders have no current plan or fixed timetable for a Taiwan invasion in 2027, viewing military readiness as a capability target rather than an order. Beijing continues prioritizing blockade, quarantine, and gray-zone operations through coast guard patrols and exercises, while assessments note persistent shortfalls in amphibious lift and sustainment for a full cross-strait assault. Taiwan’s defense ministry has highlighted these gaps alongside its own steps to strengthen long-range strike options and resilience. Diplomatic activity, including a senior Taiwanese official’s recent Europe visit and signals of potential high-level US-China engagement, aligns with trader consensus that the probability of invasion by the end of 2027 remains low.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
マーケット開始日： Mar 17, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
音量
$3,213,091終了日
2028/01/01マーケット開始日
Mar 17, 2026, 7:29 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.US intelligence assessments from March 2026 indicate Chinese leaders have no current plan or fixed timetable for a Taiwan invasion in 2027, viewing military readiness as a capability target rather than an order. Beijing continues prioritizing blockade, quarantine, and gray-zone operations through coast guard patrols and exercises, while assessments note persistent shortfalls in amphibious lift and sustainment for a full cross-strait assault. Taiwan’s defense ministry has highlighted these gaps alongside its own steps to strengthen long-range strike options and resilience. Diplomatic activity, including a senior Taiwanese official’s recent Europe visit and signals of potential high-level US-China engagement, aligns with trader consensus that the probability of invasion by the end of 2027 remains low.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
音量
$3,213,091終了日
2028/01/01マーケット開始日
Mar 17, 2026, 7:29 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...US intelligence assessments from March 2026 indicate Chinese leaders have no current plan or fixed timetable for a Taiwan invasion in 2027, viewing military readiness as a capability target rather than an order. Beijing continues prioritizing blockade, quarantine, and gray-zone operations through coast guard patrols and exercises, while assessments note persistent shortfalls in amphibious lift and sustainment for a full cross-strait assault. Taiwan’s defense ministry has highlighted these gaps alongside its own steps to strengthen long-range strike options and resilience. Diplomatic activity, including a senior Taiwanese official’s recent Europe visit and signals of potential high-level US-China engagement, aligns with trader consensus that the probability of invasion by the end of 2027 remains low.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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