Recent U.S.-China trade frameworks, including the November 2025 deal and May 2026 establishment of bilateral Boards of Trade and Investment during the Trump-Xi summit, underpin the 88.5% trader consensus on a tariff agreement by December 31, 2026. These steps extended reciprocal tariff suspensions, committed China to substantial U.S. agricultural purchases, and created formal mechanisms for negotiating further reciprocal reductions on specific goods. Ongoing working-level talks and public comment processes on additional cuts have reinforced expectations of phased accommodation before year-end. While underlying tensions persist, the pattern of de-escalation and institutional continuity supports the elevated implied probability reflected in market pricing.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$167,192 Vol.
$167,192 Vol.
2026/12/31
$167,192 Vol.
$167,192 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Recent U.S.-China trade frameworks, including the November 2025 deal and May 2026 establishment of bilateral Boards of Trade and Investment during the Trump-Xi summit, underpin the 88.5% trader consensus on a tariff agreement by December 31, 2026. These steps extended reciprocal tariff suspensions, committed China to substantial U.S. agricultural purchases, and created formal mechanisms for negotiating further reciprocal reductions on specific goods. Ongoing working-level talks and public comment processes on additional cuts have reinforced expectations of phased accommodation before year-end. While underlying tensions persist, the pattern of de-escalation and institutional continuity supports the elevated implied probability reflected in market pricing.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
マーケット開始日： May 29, 2026, 9:10 AM ET
音量
$167,192終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
May 29, 2026, 9:10 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Recent U.S.-China trade frameworks, including the November 2025 deal and May 2026 establishment of bilateral Boards of Trade and Investment during the Trump-Xi summit, underpin the 88.5% trader consensus on a tariff agreement by December 31, 2026. These steps extended reciprocal tariff suspensions, committed China to substantial U.S. agricultural purchases, and created formal mechanisms for negotiating further reciprocal reductions on specific goods. Ongoing working-level talks and public comment processes on additional cuts have reinforced expectations of phased accommodation before year-end. While underlying tensions persist, the pattern of de-escalation and institutional continuity supports the elevated implied probability reflected in market pricing.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
音量
$167,192終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
May 29, 2026, 9:10 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S.-China trade frameworks, including the November 2025 deal and May 2026 establishment of bilateral Boards of Trade and Investment during the Trump-Xi summit, underpin the 88.5% trader consensus on a tariff agreement by December 31, 2026. These steps extended reciprocal tariff suspensions, committed China to substantial U.S. agricultural purchases, and created formal mechanisms for negotiating further reciprocal reductions on specific goods. Ongoing working-level talks and public comment processes on additional cuts have reinforced expectations of phased accommodation before year-end. While underlying tensions persist, the pattern of de-escalation and institutional continuity supports the elevated implied probability reflected in market pricing.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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