Ongoing bilateral trade consultations, including the U.S.-China Board of Trade framework established after the May 2026 Trump-Xi summit, have advanced reciprocal tariff reduction talks on equivalent volumes of non-sensitive goods. Chinese officials recently stated they hope to finalize reductions "at an early date," ahead of the leaders' September 24 meeting in Washington. The October 2025 Busan/Kuala Lumpur truce, which caps new or replacement tariffs at 20% and suspends higher rates until November 2026, provides the structural baseline. Recent U.S. Section 301 actions, such as the 12.5% forced labor tariff effective July 2026, have stayed within agreed limits without triggering major retaliation, while both sides pursue agricultural purchase commitments and investment board discussions. These developments underpin trader consensus on the likelihood of a formal agreement extending or expanding reductions by year-end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日87% 確率
$249,758 Vol.
$249,758 Vol.
2026/12/31
87% 確率
$249,758 Vol.
$249,758 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Ongoing bilateral trade consultations, including the U.S.-China Board of Trade framework established after the May 2026 Trump-Xi summit, have advanced reciprocal tariff reduction talks on equivalent volumes of non-sensitive goods. Chinese officials recently stated they hope to finalize reductions "at an early date," ahead of the leaders' September 24 meeting in Washington. The October 2025 Busan/Kuala Lumpur truce, which caps new or replacement tariffs at 20% and suspends higher rates until November 2026, provides the structural baseline. Recent U.S. Section 301 actions, such as the 12.5% forced labor tariff effective July 2026, have stayed within agreed limits without triggering major retaliation, while both sides pursue agricultural purchase commitments and investment board discussions. These developments underpin trader consensus on the likelihood of a formal agreement extending or expanding reductions by year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
マーケット開始日： May 29, 2026, 9:10 AM ET
音量
$249,758終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
May 29, 2026, 9:10 AM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Ongoing bilateral trade consultations, including the U.S.-China Board of Trade framework established after the May 2026 Trump-Xi summit, have advanced reciprocal tariff reduction talks on equivalent volumes of non-sensitive goods. Chinese officials recently stated they hope to finalize reductions "at an early date," ahead of the leaders' September 24 meeting in Washington. The October 2025 Busan/Kuala Lumpur truce, which caps new or replacement tariffs at 20% and suspends higher rates until November 2026, provides the structural baseline. Recent U.S. Section 301 actions, such as the 12.5% forced labor tariff effective July 2026, have stayed within agreed limits without triggering major retaliation, while both sides pursue agricultural purchase commitments and investment board discussions. These developments underpin trader consensus on the likelihood of a formal agreement extending or expanding reductions by year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
音量
$249,758終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
May 29, 2026, 9:10 AM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Ongoing bilateral trade consultations, including the U.S.-China Board of Trade framework established after the May 2026 Trump-Xi summit, have advanced reciprocal tariff reduction talks on equivalent volumes of non-sensitive goods. Chinese officials recently stated they hope to finalize reductions "at an early date," ahead of the leaders' September 24 meeting in Washington. The October 2025 Busan/Kuala Lumpur truce, which caps new or replacement tariffs at 20% and suspends higher rates until November 2026, provides the structural baseline. Recent U.S. Section 301 actions, such as the 12.5% forced labor tariff effective July 2026, have stayed within agreed limits without triggering major retaliation, while both sides pursue agricultural purchase commitments and investment board discussions. These developments underpin trader consensus on the likelihood of a formal agreement extending or expanding reductions by year-end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問