Traders assign a 97.3% implied probability against a direct US-China military clash before 2027, reflecting sustained diplomatic channels, economic interdependence, and mutual deterrence that have kept tensions contained despite ongoing military posturing. Both countries continue routine naval and air operations in the Indo-Pacific, including the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea, without recent escalatory incidents or formal declarations that would signal imminent confrontation. Scheduled high-level talks and trade frameworks further anchor expectations of de-escalation. Late-breaking developments that could still alter this outcome include an accidental collision during exercises, a sharp shift in Taiwan policy, or rapid deterioration in bilateral negotiations within the narrow remaining window.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
3% 確率
$212,330 Vol.
$212,330 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
3% 確率
$212,330 Vol.
$212,330 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Traders assign a 97.3% implied probability against a direct US-China military clash before 2027, reflecting sustained diplomatic channels, economic interdependence, and mutual deterrence that have kept tensions contained despite ongoing military posturing. Both countries continue routine naval and air operations in the Indo-Pacific, including the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea, without recent escalatory incidents or formal declarations that would signal imminent confrontation. Scheduled high-level talks and trade frameworks further anchor expectations of de-escalation. Late-breaking developments that could still alter this outcome include an accidental collision during exercises, a sharp shift in Taiwan policy, or rapid deterioration in bilateral negotiations within the narrow remaining window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Jan 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ET
音量
$212,330終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Jan 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Traders assign a 97.3% implied probability against a direct US-China military clash before 2027, reflecting sustained diplomatic channels, economic interdependence, and mutual deterrence that have kept tensions contained despite ongoing military posturing. Both countries continue routine naval and air operations in the Indo-Pacific, including the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea, without recent escalatory incidents or formal declarations that would signal imminent confrontation. Scheduled high-level talks and trade frameworks further anchor expectations of de-escalation. Late-breaking developments that could still alter this outcome include an accidental collision during exercises, a sharp shift in Taiwan policy, or rapid deterioration in bilateral negotiations within the narrow remaining window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$212,330終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Jan 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 97.3% implied probability against a direct US-China military clash before 2027, reflecting sustained diplomatic channels, economic interdependence, and mutual deterrence that have kept tensions contained despite ongoing military posturing. Both countries continue routine naval and air operations in the Indo-Pacific, including the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea, without recent escalatory incidents or formal declarations that would signal imminent confrontation. Scheduled high-level talks and trade frameworks further anchor expectations of de-escalation. Late-breaking developments that could still alter this outcome include an accidental collision during exercises, a sharp shift in Taiwan policy, or rapid deterioration in bilateral negotiations within the narrow remaining window.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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