Traders assign a 96.2% implied probability against a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2026, reflecting the lack of any major military mobilization, missile tests, or official statements signaling imminent action in recent months. Sustained economic interdependence, ongoing US security commitments to Taiwan, and diplomatic channels aimed at preserving the status quo continue to shape assessments, with no verified escalatory events in the past 30 days altering the baseline. This consensus aligns with historical patterns of deterrence and high operational costs for large-scale amphibious operations. Scenarios that could still shift odds include sudden leadership shifts in Beijing, breakdowns in cross-strait talks, or unexpected alliance realignments within the resolution window.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$39,780,195 Vol.
$39,780,195 Vol.
はい
$39,780,195 Vol.
$39,780,195 Vol.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
マーケット開始日： Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ET
リゾルバー
0x157Ce2d67...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
リゾルバー
0x157Ce2d67...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Traders assign a 96.2% implied probability against a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2026, reflecting the lack of any major military mobilization, missile tests, or official statements signaling imminent action in recent months. Sustained economic interdependence, ongoing US security commitments to Taiwan, and diplomatic channels aimed at preserving the status quo continue to shape assessments, with no verified escalatory events in the past 30 days altering the baseline. This consensus aligns with historical patterns of deterrence and high operational costs for large-scale amphibious operations. Scenarios that could still shift odds include sudden leadership shifts in Beijing, breakdowns in cross-strait talks, or unexpected alliance realignments within the resolution window.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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