Russia’s ongoing military operations in Ukraine, marked by slow territorial gains, Ukrainian counteroffensives, and mutual long-range strikes on infrastructure, continue to consume substantial resources and manpower through September 2026. Recent intelligence assessments and official statements indicate that any potential Russian actions toward NATO members or other neighbors remain limited to hybrid provocations, drone incidents, or border tensions rather than a new conventional invasion. Putin has publicly denied aggressive intentions against European states, while Western assessments highlight Russia’s inability to open a second major front without risking further overextension. These factors align with trader consensus reflected in the 93.5% probability for no new invasion this year.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
7% 確率
$460,927 Vol.
$460,927 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
7% 確率
$460,927 Vol.
$460,927 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Russia’s ongoing military operations in Ukraine, marked by slow territorial gains, Ukrainian counteroffensives, and mutual long-range strikes on infrastructure, continue to consume substantial resources and manpower through September 2026. Recent intelligence assessments and official statements indicate that any potential Russian actions toward NATO members or other neighbors remain limited to hybrid provocations, drone incidents, or border tensions rather than a new conventional invasion. Putin has publicly denied aggressive intentions against European states, while Western assessments highlight Russia’s inability to open a second major front without risking further overextension. These factors align with trader consensus reflected in the 93.5% probability for no new invasion this year.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Jan 19, 2026, 3:18 PM ET
音量
$460,927終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Jan 19, 2026, 3:18 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Russia’s ongoing military operations in Ukraine, marked by slow territorial gains, Ukrainian counteroffensives, and mutual long-range strikes on infrastructure, continue to consume substantial resources and manpower through September 2026. Recent intelligence assessments and official statements indicate that any potential Russian actions toward NATO members or other neighbors remain limited to hybrid provocations, drone incidents, or border tensions rather than a new conventional invasion. Putin has publicly denied aggressive intentions against European states, while Western assessments highlight Russia’s inability to open a second major front without risking further overextension. These factors align with trader consensus reflected in the 93.5% probability for no new invasion this year.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$460,927終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Jan 19, 2026, 3:18 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Russia’s ongoing military operations in Ukraine, marked by slow territorial gains, Ukrainian counteroffensives, and mutual long-range strikes on infrastructure, continue to consume substantial resources and manpower through September 2026. Recent intelligence assessments and official statements indicate that any potential Russian actions toward NATO members or other neighbors remain limited to hybrid provocations, drone incidents, or border tensions rather than a new conventional invasion. Putin has publicly denied aggressive intentions against European states, while Western assessments highlight Russia’s inability to open a second major front without risking further overextension. These factors align with trader consensus reflected in the 93.5% probability for no new invasion this year.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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