Trader consensus reflects low invasion risk at 89.5% "No" probability through September 2026, driven primarily by formidable U.S.-led deterrence, including arms sales to Taiwan and strengthened alliances like AUKUS, alongside China's economic slowdown curbing aggressive timelines. Recent PLA military drills around Taiwan following President Lai Ching-te's May 2024 inauguration tested defenses but showed no amphibious assault preparations, aligning with Beijing's official emphasis on "peaceful reunification" without fixed deadlines. Intelligence assessments from U.S. officials indicate no imminent attack before 2027, while cross-strait tensions persist amid routine gray-zone tactics, yet logistical hurdles across the Taiwan Strait and global economic fallout risks reinforce trader skepticism of near-term escalation.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日はい
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
はい
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
マーケット開始日： Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ET
音量
$58終了日
Sep 30, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
音量
$58終了日
Sep 30, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects low invasion risk at 89.5% "No" probability through September 2026, driven primarily by formidable U.S.-led deterrence, including arms sales to Taiwan and strengthened alliances like AUKUS, alongside China's economic slowdown curbing aggressive timelines. Recent PLA military drills around Taiwan following President Lai Ching-te's May 2024 inauguration tested defenses but showed no amphibious assault preparations, aligning with Beijing's official emphasis on "peaceful reunification" without fixed deadlines. Intelligence assessments from U.S. officials indicate no imminent attack before 2027, while cross-strait tensions persist amid routine gray-zone tactics, yet logistical hurdles across the Taiwan Strait and global economic fallout risks reinforce trader skepticism of near-term escalation.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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