Rising US-China tensions and CXMT’s placement on the Pentagon’s 1260H military companies list have created substantial regulatory and reputational hurdles for any Apple procurement of its DRAM. Although Apple began lobbying the Trump administration in mid-2026 for assurances against Entity List placement and has reportedly tested CXMT chips for China-market devices amid an AI-driven memory shortage that quadrupled prices, lawmakers have voiced strong opposition and most of CXMT’s expanded capacity remains committed through 2027. These political risks and supply constraints underpin the 77.5% market-implied probability against a 2026 purchase, with any resolution likely hinging on White House decisions or further capacity shifts in the coming months.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
22% 確率
$21,728 Vol.
$21,728 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
22% 確率
$21,728 Vol.
$21,728 Vol.
2026/12/31
According to the Financial Times, Apple has sought U.S. government approval to purchase memory chips from ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT). You can read more about that here: https://www.ft.com/content/d72a25e2-7bde-4aa9-bd8d-0c4f3d6cb2cb?syn-25a6b1a6=1.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Rising US-China tensions and CXMT’s placement on the Pentagon’s 1260H military companies list have created substantial regulatory and reputational hurdles for any Apple procurement of its DRAM. Although Apple began lobbying the Trump administration in mid-2026 for assurances against Entity List placement and has reportedly tested CXMT chips for China-market devices amid an AI-driven memory shortage that quadrupled prices, lawmakers have voiced strong opposition and most of CXMT’s expanded capacity remains committed through 2027. These political risks and supply constraints underpin the 77.5% market-implied probability against a 2026 purchase, with any resolution likely hinging on White House decisions or further capacity shifts in the coming months.
According to the Financial Times, Apple has sought U.S. government approval to purchase memory chips from ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT). You can read more about that here: https://www.ft.com/content/d72a25e2-7bde-4aa9-bd8d-0c4f3d6cb2cb?syn-25a6b1a6=1.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
マーケット開始日： Jun 30, 2026, 1:20 PM ET
音量
$21,728終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Jun 30, 2026, 1:20 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...According to the Financial Times, Apple has sought U.S. government approval to purchase memory chips from ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT). You can read more about that here: https://www.ft.com/content/d72a25e2-7bde-4aa9-bd8d-0c4f3d6cb2cb?syn-25a6b1a6=1.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Rising US-China tensions and CXMT’s placement on the Pentagon’s 1260H military companies list have created substantial regulatory and reputational hurdles for any Apple procurement of its DRAM. Although Apple began lobbying the Trump administration in mid-2026 for assurances against Entity List placement and has reportedly tested CXMT chips for China-market devices amid an AI-driven memory shortage that quadrupled prices, lawmakers have voiced strong opposition and most of CXMT’s expanded capacity remains committed through 2027. These political risks and supply constraints underpin the 77.5% market-implied probability against a 2026 purchase, with any resolution likely hinging on White House decisions or further capacity shifts in the coming months.
According to the Financial Times, Apple has sought U.S. government approval to purchase memory chips from ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT). You can read more about that here: https://www.ft.com/content/d72a25e2-7bde-4aa9-bd8d-0c4f3d6cb2cb?syn-25a6b1a6=1.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
音量
$21,728終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Jun 30, 2026, 1:20 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Rising US-China tensions and CXMT’s placement on the Pentagon’s 1260H military companies list have created substantial regulatory and reputational hurdles for any Apple procurement of its DRAM. Although Apple began lobbying the Trump administration in mid-2026 for assurances against Entity List placement and has reportedly tested CXMT chips for China-market devices amid an AI-driven memory shortage that quadrupled prices, lawmakers have voiced strong opposition and most of CXMT’s expanded capacity remains committed through 2027. These political risks and supply constraints underpin the 77.5% market-implied probability against a 2026 purchase, with any resolution likely hinging on White House decisions or further capacity shifts in the coming months.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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