Ukraine's constitutional commitment to NATO membership, repeatedly reaffirmed by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, underpins trader expectations that Kyiv will not agree to forgo accession before 2027. In mid-September 2026, Zelenskyy described NATO entry as a potential route to ending the war and a security guarantee for Europe, while alliance summits and declarations have continued to frame Ukraine's path as irreversible and noted its role as a security contributor. Ongoing bilateral talks with the United States and Russia have produced no verified Ukrainian concession on neutrality, and NATO support packages extend through 2027 without conditions requiring delay. These factors sustain the market's assessment that no such agreement will materialize in the resolution window.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
7% 確率
$153,520 Vol.
$153,520 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
7% 確率
$153,520 Vol.
$153,520 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.Ukraine's constitutional commitment to NATO membership, repeatedly reaffirmed by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, underpins trader expectations that Kyiv will not agree to forgo accession before 2027. In mid-September 2026, Zelenskyy described NATO entry as a potential route to ending the war and a security guarantee for Europe, while alliance summits and declarations have continued to frame Ukraine's path as irreversible and noted its role as a security contributor. Ongoing bilateral talks with the United States and Russia have produced no verified Ukrainian concession on neutrality, and NATO support packages extend through 2027 without conditions requiring delay. These factors sustain the market's assessment that no such agreement will materialize in the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
マーケット開始日： Nov 5, 2025, 11:56 AM ET
音量
$153,520終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 11:56 AM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.Ukraine's constitutional commitment to NATO membership, repeatedly reaffirmed by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, underpins trader expectations that Kyiv will not agree to forgo accession before 2027. In mid-September 2026, Zelenskyy described NATO entry as a potential route to ending the war and a security guarantee for Europe, while alliance summits and declarations have continued to frame Ukraine's path as irreversible and noted its role as a security contributor. Ongoing bilateral talks with the United States and Russia have produced no verified Ukrainian concession on neutrality, and NATO support packages extend through 2027 without conditions requiring delay. These factors sustain the market's assessment that no such agreement will materialize in the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
音量
$153,520終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 11:56 AM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Ukraine's constitutional commitment to NATO membership, repeatedly reaffirmed by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, underpins trader expectations that Kyiv will not agree to forgo accession before 2027. In mid-September 2026, Zelenskyy described NATO entry as a potential route to ending the war and a security guarantee for Europe, while alliance summits and declarations have continued to frame Ukraine's path as irreversible and noted its role as a security contributor. Ongoing bilateral talks with the United States and Russia have produced no verified Ukrainian concession on neutrality, and NATO support packages extend through 2027 without conditions requiring delay. These factors sustain the market's assessment that no such agreement will materialize in the resolution window.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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