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政治·外交政策

2027年以前のNATO第5条？

icon for 2027年以前のNATO第5条？
政治·外交政策

2027年以前のNATO第5条？

12月 31

12月 31

はい

14% 確率
Polymarket

$58,576 Vol.

はい

14% 確率
Polymarket

$58,576 Vol.

If any NATO member country invokes Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty at any time between November 5, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO (nato.int), however a consensus of credible media will also suffice.Trader consensus prices "No" at 86.5% for NATO invoking Article 5 before 2027, reflecting the absence of any armed attack on alliance territory despite persistent geopolitical tensions. The high bar for activation—requiring consensus on a qualifying assault—was underscored in March 2026 when an Iranian ballistic missile entered Turkish airspace but was intercepted without triggering the clause, as confirmed by NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte and US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. Russian hybrid threats, including UAV incursions on NATO's eastern flank in Poland and the Baltics, have prompted defensive fortifications but fall short of Article 5 thresholds. Recent warnings from Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk of potential Russian strikes within months have not shifted odds significantly, given historical precedent of invocation only once since 1949 (post-9/11) and ongoing containment of the Ukraine conflict outside NATO borders. Upcoming NATO summits and European defense investments signal de-escalation focus.

If any NATO member country invokes Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty at any time between November 5, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO (nato.int), however a consensus of credible media will also suffice.
音量
$58,576
終了日
2026/12/31
マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 1:47 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
If any NATO member country invokes Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty at any time between November 5, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO (nato.int), however a consensus of credible media will also suffice.
If any NATO member country invokes Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty at any time between November 5, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO (nato.int), however a consensus of credible media will also suffice.Trader consensus prices "No" at 86.5% for NATO invoking Article 5 before 2027, reflecting the absence of any armed attack on alliance territory despite persistent geopolitical tensions. The high bar for activation—requiring consensus on a qualifying assault—was underscored in March 2026 when an Iranian ballistic missile entered Turkish airspace but was intercepted without triggering the clause, as confirmed by NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte and US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. Russian hybrid threats, including UAV incursions on NATO's eastern flank in Poland and the Baltics, have prompted defensive fortifications but fall short of Article 5 thresholds. Recent warnings from Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk of potential Russian strikes within months have not shifted odds significantly, given historical precedent of invocation only once since 1949 (post-9/11) and ongoing containment of the Ukraine conflict outside NATO borders. Upcoming NATO summits and European defense investments signal de-escalation focus.

If any NATO member country invokes Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty at any time between November 5, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO (nato.int), however a consensus of credible media will also suffice.
音量
$58,576
終了日
2026/12/31
マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 1:47 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
If any NATO member country invokes Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty at any time between November 5, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO (nato.int), however a consensus of credible media will also suffice.

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よくある質問

「2027年以前のNATO第5条？」はPolymarket上の2個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「2027年以前にNATO第5条が発動されるか？」で14%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、14¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に14%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「2027年以前のNATO第5条？」は$58.6Kの総取引量を生み出しています（Nov 5, 2025のマーケット開始以来）。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

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「2027年以前のNATO第5条？」の現在のフロントランナーは「2027年以前にNATO第5条が発動されるか？」で14%であり、市場がこの結果に14%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

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