Trader consensus prices "No" at 92.5% for NATO dissolution before 2027, reflecting the alliance's institutional resilience amid U.S. President Trump's repeated threats to withdraw or suspend members like Spain, as reported in early April 2026 leaks and statements tied to transatlantic strains over Iran policy. No formal withdrawal notices under Article 13 have been issued by any of NATO's 32 members, and recent multinational capability initiatives launched in February 2026, alongside the 2025 Hague Summit's 5% GDP defense spending pledge, underscore ongoing unity and adaptation. The upcoming Ankara Summit on July 7-8 could reset ties, while historical precedents from Trump's first term show such rhetoric rarely leads to actual exit, let alone full alliance collapse. Late-breaking U.S. actions or mass defections remain low-probability disruptors.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$73,780 Vol.
$73,780 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
$73,780 Vol.
$73,780 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
NATO will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the NATO member states (as of market creation) withdraw from NATO.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all NATO member states to repeal or nullify the North Atlantic Treaty.
3) NATO otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
NATO member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or provide an official notice of denunciation to NATO, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO and NATO member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus prices "No" at 92.5% for NATO dissolution before 2027, reflecting the alliance's institutional resilience amid U.S. President Trump's repeated threats to withdraw or suspend members like Spain, as reported in early April 2026 leaks and statements tied to transatlantic strains over Iran policy. No formal withdrawal notices under Article 13 have been issued by any of NATO's 32 members, and recent multinational capability initiatives launched in February 2026, alongside the 2025 Hague Summit's 5% GDP defense spending pledge, underscore ongoing unity and adaptation. The upcoming Ankara Summit on July 7-8 could reset ties, while historical precedents from Trump's first term show such rhetoric rarely leads to actual exit, let alone full alliance collapse. Late-breaking U.S. actions or mass defections remain low-probability disruptors.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
NATO will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the NATO member states (as of market creation) withdraw from NATO.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all NATO member states to repeal or nullify the North Atlantic Treaty.
3) NATO otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
NATO member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or provide an official notice of denunciation to NATO, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO and NATO member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
NATO will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the NATO member states (as of market creation) withdraw from NATO.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all NATO member states to repeal or nullify the North Atlantic Treaty.
3) NATO otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
NATO member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or provide an official notice of denunciation to NATO, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO and NATO member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Jan 8, 2026, 1:09 PM ET
音量
$73,780終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jan 8, 2026, 1:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
NATO will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the NATO member states (as of market creation) withdraw from NATO.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all NATO member states to repeal or nullify the North Atlantic Treaty.
3) NATO otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
NATO member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or provide an official notice of denunciation to NATO, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO and NATO member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus prices "No" at 92.5% for NATO dissolution before 2027, reflecting the alliance's institutional resilience amid U.S. President Trump's repeated threats to withdraw or suspend members like Spain, as reported in early April 2026 leaks and statements tied to transatlantic strains over Iran policy. No formal withdrawal notices under Article 13 have been issued by any of NATO's 32 members, and recent multinational capability initiatives launched in February 2026, alongside the 2025 Hague Summit's 5% GDP defense spending pledge, underscore ongoing unity and adaptation. The upcoming Ankara Summit on July 7-8 could reset ties, while historical precedents from Trump's first term show such rhetoric rarely leads to actual exit, let alone full alliance collapse. Late-breaking U.S. actions or mass defections remain low-probability disruptors.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
NATO will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the NATO member states (as of market creation) withdraw from NATO.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all NATO member states to repeal or nullify the North Atlantic Treaty.
3) NATO otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
NATO member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or provide an official notice of denunciation to NATO, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO and NATO member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
NATO will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the NATO member states (as of market creation) withdraw from NATO.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all NATO member states to repeal or nullify the North Atlantic Treaty.
3) NATO otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
NATO member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or provide an official notice of denunciation to NATO, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO and NATO member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$73,780終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jan 8, 2026, 1:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 92.5% for NATO dissolution before 2027, reflecting the alliance's institutional resilience amid U.S. President Trump's repeated threats to withdraw or suspend members like Spain, as reported in early April 2026 leaks and statements tied to transatlantic strains over Iran policy. No formal withdrawal notices under Article 13 have been issued by any of NATO's 32 members, and recent multinational capability initiatives launched in February 2026, alongside the 2025 Hague Summit's 5% GDP defense spending pledge, underscore ongoing unity and adaptation. The upcoming Ankara Summit on July 7-8 could reset ties, while historical precedents from Trump's first term show such rhetoric rarely leads to actual exit, let alone full alliance collapse. Late-breaking U.S. actions or mass defections remain low-probability disruptors.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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