Traders assign a 98.7% implied probability that the EU will not dissolve before 2027 due to the bloc’s entrenched legal framework, including the absence of any active Article 50 notifications or coordinated withdrawal movements among the 27 member states. Recent public opinion data from six countries shows broad attachment to the union despite concerns over security, economic pressures, and governance capacity, with only a small minority favoring dissolution. EU institutions continue advancing defense partnerships, trade agreements, and accession talks with Ukraine and Moldova, reinforcing operational continuity through the remainder of 2026. While populist parties in several states voice long-term skepticism, no near-term catalysts exist for the rapid, simultaneous exits required for dissolution. Extreme scenarios such as cascading exits triggered by unforeseen geopolitical shocks or domestic political upheavals remain possible but lack supporting developments in the current environment.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日EUは2027年までに解散しますか？
EUは2027年までに解散しますか？
はい
1% 確率
$180,680 Vol.
$180,680 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
1% 確率
$180,680 Vol.
$180,680 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Traders assign a 98.7% implied probability that the EU will not dissolve before 2027 due to the bloc’s entrenched legal framework, including the absence of any active Article 50 notifications or coordinated withdrawal movements among the 27 member states. Recent public opinion data from six countries shows broad attachment to the union despite concerns over security, economic pressures, and governance capacity, with only a small minority favoring dissolution. EU institutions continue advancing defense partnerships, trade agreements, and accession talks with Ukraine and Moldova, reinforcing operational continuity through the remainder of 2026. While populist parties in several states voice long-term skepticism, no near-term catalysts exist for the rapid, simultaneous exits required for dissolution. Extreme scenarios such as cascading exits triggered by unforeseen geopolitical shocks or domestic political upheavals remain possible but lack supporting developments in the current environment.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Dec 7, 2025, 6:21 PM ET
音量
$180,680終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Dec 7, 2025, 6:21 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Traders assign a 98.7% implied probability that the EU will not dissolve before 2027 due to the bloc’s entrenched legal framework, including the absence of any active Article 50 notifications or coordinated withdrawal movements among the 27 member states. Recent public opinion data from six countries shows broad attachment to the union despite concerns over security, economic pressures, and governance capacity, with only a small minority favoring dissolution. EU institutions continue advancing defense partnerships, trade agreements, and accession talks with Ukraine and Moldova, reinforcing operational continuity through the remainder of 2026. While populist parties in several states voice long-term skepticism, no near-term catalysts exist for the rapid, simultaneous exits required for dissolution. Extreme scenarios such as cascading exits triggered by unforeseen geopolitical shocks or domestic political upheavals remain possible but lack supporting developments in the current environment.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$180,680終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Dec 7, 2025, 6:21 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 98.7% implied probability that the EU will not dissolve before 2027 due to the bloc’s entrenched legal framework, including the absence of any active Article 50 notifications or coordinated withdrawal movements among the 27 member states. Recent public opinion data from six countries shows broad attachment to the union despite concerns over security, economic pressures, and governance capacity, with only a small minority favoring dissolution. EU institutions continue advancing defense partnerships, trade agreements, and accession talks with Ukraine and Moldova, reinforcing operational continuity through the remainder of 2026. While populist parties in several states voice long-term skepticism, no near-term catalysts exist for the rapid, simultaneous exits required for dissolution. Extreme scenarios such as cascading exits triggered by unforeseen geopolitical shocks or domestic political upheavals remain possible but lack supporting developments in the current environment.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
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