The absence of any official KRG statements, parliamentary actions, or referendum preparations supports trader consensus against a unilateral independence declaration by year-end. Focus remains on ongoing Erbil-Baghdad talks over 2027 budget shares, oil revenue transfers, and salary disbursements, alongside stalled KRG cabinet formation between the KDP and PUK. The scheduled September 30 completion of U.S.-led coalition withdrawal, including air defenses from the Kurdistan Region, has heightened security concerns over potential Iranian-linked attacks, prompting KRG emphasis on coordination with federal authorities rather than separation. Historical precedent from the 2017 referendum, which triggered territorial losses and international opposition, further reinforces structural barriers within Iraq's constitutional framework.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
6% 確率
$272,811 Vol.
$272,811 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
6% 確率
$272,811 Vol.
$272,811 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The absence of any official KRG statements, parliamentary actions, or referendum preparations supports trader consensus against a unilateral independence declaration by year-end. Focus remains on ongoing Erbil-Baghdad talks over 2027 budget shares, oil revenue transfers, and salary disbursements, alongside stalled KRG cabinet formation between the KDP and PUK. The scheduled September 30 completion of U.S.-led coalition withdrawal, including air defenses from the Kurdistan Region, has heightened security concerns over potential Iranian-linked attacks, prompting KRG emphasis on coordination with federal authorities rather than separation. Historical precedent from the 2017 referendum, which triggered territorial losses and international opposition, further reinforces structural barriers within Iraq's constitutional framework.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： May 1, 2026, 6:08 PM ET
音量
$272,811終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
May 1, 2026, 6:08 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The absence of any official KRG statements, parliamentary actions, or referendum preparations supports trader consensus against a unilateral independence declaration by year-end. Focus remains on ongoing Erbil-Baghdad talks over 2027 budget shares, oil revenue transfers, and salary disbursements, alongside stalled KRG cabinet formation between the KDP and PUK. The scheduled September 30 completion of U.S.-led coalition withdrawal, including air defenses from the Kurdistan Region, has heightened security concerns over potential Iranian-linked attacks, prompting KRG emphasis on coordination with federal authorities rather than separation. Historical precedent from the 2017 referendum, which triggered territorial losses and international opposition, further reinforces structural barriers within Iraq's constitutional framework.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$272,811終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
May 1, 2026, 6:08 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...The absence of any official KRG statements, parliamentary actions, or referendum preparations supports trader consensus against a unilateral independence declaration by year-end. Focus remains on ongoing Erbil-Baghdad talks over 2027 budget shares, oil revenue transfers, and salary disbursements, alongside stalled KRG cabinet formation between the KDP and PUK. The scheduled September 30 completion of U.S.-led coalition withdrawal, including air defenses from the Kurdistan Region, has heightened security concerns over potential Iranian-linked attacks, prompting KRG emphasis on coordination with federal authorities rather than separation. Historical precedent from the 2017 referendum, which triggered territorial losses and international opposition, further reinforces structural barriers within Iraq's constitutional framework.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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