Iranian lawmakers have introduced formal proposals in parliament as recently as August 21, 2026, calling for NPT withdrawal in response to prior U.S. and Israeli strikes on nuclear sites, leadership losses, and perceived treaty failures. These moves follow Iran's suspension of IAEA inspections since mid-2025, reimposed UN sanctions, and the expiration of a June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum without resolving enrichment or verification disputes. Under NPT Article X, any exit requires three months' advance notice citing supreme national interests and formal UN notification. No such step has advanced beyond the proposal stage amid ongoing diplomatic reviews and risks of further isolation. Traders assign an 89.3% implied probability against withdrawal before 2027, viewing recent rhetoric as consistent with past threats that have not produced formal action.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
11% 確率
$383,233 Vol.
$383,233 Vol.
2026/12/30
はい
11% 確率
$383,233 Vol.
$383,233 Vol.
2026/12/30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Iranian lawmakers have introduced formal proposals in parliament as recently as August 21, 2026, calling for NPT withdrawal in response to prior U.S. and Israeli strikes on nuclear sites, leadership losses, and perceived treaty failures. These moves follow Iran's suspension of IAEA inspections since mid-2025, reimposed UN sanctions, and the expiration of a June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum without resolving enrichment or verification disputes. Under NPT Article X, any exit requires three months' advance notice citing supreme national interests and formal UN notification. No such step has advanced beyond the proposal stage amid ongoing diplomatic reviews and risks of further isolation. Traders assign an 89.3% implied probability against withdrawal before 2027, viewing recent rhetoric as consistent with past threats that have not produced formal action.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ET
音量
$383,233終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Iranian lawmakers have introduced formal proposals in parliament as recently as August 21, 2026, calling for NPT withdrawal in response to prior U.S. and Israeli strikes on nuclear sites, leadership losses, and perceived treaty failures. These moves follow Iran's suspension of IAEA inspections since mid-2025, reimposed UN sanctions, and the expiration of a June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum without resolving enrichment or verification disputes. Under NPT Article X, any exit requires three months' advance notice citing supreme national interests and formal UN notification. No such step has advanced beyond the proposal stage amid ongoing diplomatic reviews and risks of further isolation. Traders assign an 89.3% implied probability against withdrawal before 2027, viewing recent rhetoric as consistent with past threats that have not produced formal action.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$383,233終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iranian lawmakers have introduced formal proposals in parliament as recently as August 21, 2026, calling for NPT withdrawal in response to prior U.S. and Israeli strikes on nuclear sites, leadership losses, and perceived treaty failures. These moves follow Iran's suspension of IAEA inspections since mid-2025, reimposed UN sanctions, and the expiration of a June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum without resolving enrichment or verification disputes. Under NPT Article X, any exit requires three months' advance notice citing supreme national interests and formal UN notification. No such step has advanced beyond the proposal stage amid ongoing diplomatic reviews and risks of further isolation. Traders assign an 89.3% implied probability against withdrawal before 2027, viewing recent rhetoric as consistent with past threats that have not produced formal action.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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