Iran's enriched uranium stockpile, now exceeding 6,000 kg per IAEA reports including near-weapons-grade material, continues to expand amid stalled revival talks on the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). Indirect US-Iran negotiations in Oman last month produced no breakthroughs on stockpile surrender or sanctions relief, as Tehran demands guarantees against future US withdrawal. Recent escalations, including Iran's October 1 missile attack on Israel and Israel's October 26 retaliatory strikes on Iranian military sites, have dimmed diplomatic prospects. IAEA's late October censure of Iran for non-cooperation underscores tensions. Traders watch the US presidential election on November 5 and potential IAEA board actions for shifts in negotiation dynamics.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日NEW
$24,638 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
April 30
10%
June 30
18%
December 31
34%
$24,638 Vol.
April 30
$1,877 Vol.
10%
June 30
$1,588 Vol.
18%
December 31
$21,173 Vol.
34%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.
To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran's enriched uranium stockpile, now exceeding 6,000 kg per IAEA reports including near-weapons-grade material, continues to expand amid stalled revival talks on the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). Indirect US-Iran negotiations in Oman last month produced no breakthroughs on stockpile surrender or sanctions relief, as Tehran demands guarantees against future US withdrawal. Recent escalations, including Iran's October 1 missile attack on Israel and Israel's October 26 retaliatory strikes on Iranian military sites, have dimmed diplomatic prospects. IAEA's late October censure of Iran for non-cooperation underscores tensions. Traders watch the US presidential election on November 5 and potential IAEA board actions for shifts in negotiation dynamics.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.
To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.
To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Mar 26, 2026, 7:53 PM ET
音量
$24,638終了日
Dec 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 26, 2026, 7:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.
To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran's enriched uranium stockpile, now exceeding 6,000 kg per IAEA reports including near-weapons-grade material, continues to expand amid stalled revival talks on the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). Indirect US-Iran negotiations in Oman last month produced no breakthroughs on stockpile surrender or sanctions relief, as Tehran demands guarantees against future US withdrawal. Recent escalations, including Iran's October 1 missile attack on Israel and Israel's October 26 retaliatory strikes on Iranian military sites, have dimmed diplomatic prospects. IAEA's late October censure of Iran for non-cooperation underscores tensions. Traders watch the US presidential election on November 5 and potential IAEA board actions for shifts in negotiation dynamics.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.
To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.
To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$24,638終了日
Dec 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 26, 2026, 7:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran's enriched uranium stockpile, now exceeding 6,000 kg per IAEA reports including near-weapons-grade material, continues to expand amid stalled revival talks on the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). Indirect US-Iran negotiations in Oman last month produced no breakthroughs on stockpile surrender or sanctions relief, as Tehran demands guarantees against future US withdrawal. Recent escalations, including Iran's October 1 missile attack on Israel and Israel's October 26 retaliatory strikes on Iranian military sites, have dimmed diplomatic prospects. IAEA's late October censure of Iran for non-cooperation underscores tensions. Traders watch the US presidential election on November 5 and potential IAEA board actions for shifts in negotiation dynamics.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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