Russian forces continue infiltration operations and small-unit probes into Mykolaivka in Donetsk Oblast, a settlement northeast of Kostyantynivka along axes toward Kramatorsk and Slovyansk. Recent assessments note Russian reconnaissance teams entering the area, strikes on Ukrainian drone positions there, and activity along the Mykolaivka–Raihorodok line, though Ukrainian forces have struck Russian positions in the southeast of the settlement. Broader Russian efforts in the sector face constraints from fuel shortages, terrain, and Ukrainian drone interdiction, limiting the pace of advances despite glide-bomb support. Trader consensus on near-term capture reflects these localized tactical developments and the wider contest for the Slovyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration, with resolution tied to confirmed control of the specified intersection by the market deadline.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
2026/10/31
10月31日
14%
12月31日
50%
$697 Vol.
10月31日
$697 Vol.
14%
12月31日
$0 Vol.
50%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.854785° N, 37.770676° E in Mykolaivka, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location in Mykolaivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/M1-9c93c30975.png
Mykolaivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/m2-2562dd2b47.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/vaMZNEQuFL2b4JNPA
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.Russian forces continue infiltration operations and small-unit probes into Mykolaivka in Donetsk Oblast, a settlement northeast of Kostyantynivka along axes toward Kramatorsk and Slovyansk. Recent assessments note Russian reconnaissance teams entering the area, strikes on Ukrainian drone positions there, and activity along the Mykolaivka–Raihorodok line, though Ukrainian forces have struck Russian positions in the southeast of the settlement. Broader Russian efforts in the sector face constraints from fuel shortages, terrain, and Ukrainian drone interdiction, limiting the pace of advances despite glide-bomb support. Trader consensus on near-term capture reflects these localized tactical developments and the wider contest for the Slovyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration, with resolution tied to confirmed control of the specified intersection by the market deadline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.854785° N, 37.770676° E in Mykolaivka, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location in Mykolaivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/M1-9c93c30975.png
Mykolaivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/m2-2562dd2b47.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/vaMZNEQuFL2b4JNPA
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location in Mykolaivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/M1-9c93c30975.png
Mykolaivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/m2-2562dd2b47.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/vaMZNEQuFL2b4JNPA
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
マーケット開始日： Aug 21, 2026, 2:34 PM ET
音量
$697終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Aug 21, 2026, 2:34 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.854785° N, 37.770676° E in Mykolaivka, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location in Mykolaivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/M1-9c93c30975.png
Mykolaivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/m2-2562dd2b47.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/vaMZNEQuFL2b4JNPA
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.Russian forces continue infiltration operations and small-unit probes into Mykolaivka in Donetsk Oblast, a settlement northeast of Kostyantynivka along axes toward Kramatorsk and Slovyansk. Recent assessments note Russian reconnaissance teams entering the area, strikes on Ukrainian drone positions there, and activity along the Mykolaivka–Raihorodok line, though Ukrainian forces have struck Russian positions in the southeast of the settlement. Broader Russian efforts in the sector face constraints from fuel shortages, terrain, and Ukrainian drone interdiction, limiting the pace of advances despite glide-bomb support. Trader consensus on near-term capture reflects these localized tactical developments and the wider contest for the Slovyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration, with resolution tied to confirmed control of the specified intersection by the market deadline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.854785° N, 37.770676° E in Mykolaivka, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location in Mykolaivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/M1-9c93c30975.png
Mykolaivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/m2-2562dd2b47.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/vaMZNEQuFL2b4JNPA
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location in Mykolaivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/M1-9c93c30975.png
Mykolaivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/m2-2562dd2b47.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/vaMZNEQuFL2b4JNPA
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
音量
$697終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Aug 21, 2026, 2:34 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Russian forces continue infiltration operations and small-unit probes into Mykolaivka in Donetsk Oblast, a settlement northeast of Kostyantynivka along axes toward Kramatorsk and Slovyansk. Recent assessments note Russian reconnaissance teams entering the area, strikes on Ukrainian drone positions there, and activity along the Mykolaivka–Raihorodok line, though Ukrainian forces have struck Russian positions in the southeast of the settlement. Broader Russian efforts in the sector face constraints from fuel shortages, terrain, and Ukrainian drone interdiction, limiting the pace of advances despite glide-bomb support. Trader consensus on near-term capture reflects these localized tactical developments and the wider contest for the Slovyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration, with resolution tied to confirmed control of the specified intersection by the market deadline.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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