Diplomatic expulsions of Iranian officials often stem from national security concerns, espionage allegations, or responses to Tehran's foreign policy actions, including support for proxy groups and involvement in regional conflicts. Recent cases include U.S. actions against UN mission personnel in late 2025, Australia's 2025 move over antisemitic incidents, and Lebanon's March 2026 persona non grata declaration amid Hezbollah-Israel fighting. Trader focus now centers on France's reported plans to expel two diplomats, which could signal broader Western coordination or isolated bilateral friction. Key variables include any new incidents involving Iranian networks abroad, reciprocal measures from Tehran, and scheduled diplomatic engagements through late 2026 that might alter momentum. Resolution hinges on verified expulsions by specified deadlines, with outcomes sensitive to intelligence disclosures or policy shifts.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
2026/08/31
8月31日
21%
9月30日
54%
10月31日
52%
$0.00 Vol.
8月31日
$0 Vol.
21%
9月30日
$0 Vol.
54%
10月31日
$0 Vol.
52%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels the Iranian Ambassador stationed in that country as of market creation between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by a country requiring the Iranian Ambassador currently stationed there as of market creation to leave the country, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of the Ambassador’s visa or denial of entry to that country will not alone suffice.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the Ambassador actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country’s government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Diplomatic expulsions of Iranian officials often stem from national security concerns, espionage allegations, or responses to Tehran's foreign policy actions, including support for proxy groups and involvement in regional conflicts. Recent cases include U.S. actions against UN mission personnel in late 2025, Australia's 2025 move over antisemitic incidents, and Lebanon's March 2026 persona non grata declaration amid Hezbollah-Israel fighting. Trader focus now centers on France's reported plans to expel two diplomats, which could signal broader Western coordination or isolated bilateral friction. Key variables include any new incidents involving Iranian networks abroad, reciprocal measures from Tehran, and scheduled diplomatic engagements through late 2026 that might alter momentum. Resolution hinges on verified expulsions by specified deadlines, with outcomes sensitive to intelligence disclosures or policy shifts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels the Iranian Ambassador stationed in that country as of market creation between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by a country requiring the Iranian Ambassador currently stationed there as of market creation to leave the country, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of the Ambassador’s visa or denial of entry to that country will not alone suffice.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the Ambassador actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country’s government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by a country requiring the Iranian Ambassador currently stationed there as of market creation to leave the country, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of the Ambassador’s visa or denial of entry to that country will not alone suffice.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the Ambassador actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country’s government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Aug 19, 2026, 8:32 PM ET
音量
$0終了日
2026/10/31マーケット開始日
Aug 19, 2026, 8:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels the Iranian Ambassador stationed in that country as of market creation between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by a country requiring the Iranian Ambassador currently stationed there as of market creation to leave the country, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of the Ambassador’s visa or denial of entry to that country will not alone suffice.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the Ambassador actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country’s government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Diplomatic expulsions of Iranian officials often stem from national security concerns, espionage allegations, or responses to Tehran's foreign policy actions, including support for proxy groups and involvement in regional conflicts. Recent cases include U.S. actions against UN mission personnel in late 2025, Australia's 2025 move over antisemitic incidents, and Lebanon's March 2026 persona non grata declaration amid Hezbollah-Israel fighting. Trader focus now centers on France's reported plans to expel two diplomats, which could signal broader Western coordination or isolated bilateral friction. Key variables include any new incidents involving Iranian networks abroad, reciprocal measures from Tehran, and scheduled diplomatic engagements through late 2026 that might alter momentum. Resolution hinges on verified expulsions by specified deadlines, with outcomes sensitive to intelligence disclosures or policy shifts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels the Iranian Ambassador stationed in that country as of market creation between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by a country requiring the Iranian Ambassador currently stationed there as of market creation to leave the country, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of the Ambassador’s visa or denial of entry to that country will not alone suffice.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the Ambassador actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country’s government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by a country requiring the Iranian Ambassador currently stationed there as of market creation to leave the country, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of the Ambassador’s visa or denial of entry to that country will not alone suffice.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the Ambassador actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country’s government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$0終了日
2026/10/31マーケット開始日
Aug 19, 2026, 8:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Diplomatic expulsions of Iranian officials often stem from national security concerns, espionage allegations, or responses to Tehran's foreign policy actions, including support for proxy groups and involvement in regional conflicts. Recent cases include U.S. actions against UN mission personnel in late 2025, Australia's 2025 move over antisemitic incidents, and Lebanon's March 2026 persona non grata declaration amid Hezbollah-Israel fighting. Trader focus now centers on France's reported plans to expel two diplomats, which could signal broader Western coordination or isolated bilateral friction. Key variables include any new incidents involving Iranian networks abroad, reciprocal measures from Tehran, and scheduled diplomatic engagements through late 2026 that might alter momentum. Resolution hinges on verified expulsions by specified deadlines, with outcomes sensitive to intelligence disclosures or policy shifts.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問