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地政学·トランプ

米国はイランの濃縮ウランを... ？

Market icon
地政学·トランプ

米国はイランの濃縮ウランを... ？

$5,678,213 Vol.

2026/04/30
Polymarket

$5,678,213 Vol.

Polymarket

4月30日

$295,518 Vol.

3%

5月31日

$5,331,791 Vol.

23%

12月31日

$62,906 Vol.

32%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify. Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure. A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify. Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure. A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify. Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure. A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing US-Iran nuclear negotiations center on Iran's stockpile of highly enriched uranium, recently estimated by the IAEA at over 400 kilograms of 60% purity material—a short step from weapons-grade—with verification challenges persisting after 2025 airstrikes. Tehran rejected transferring enriched uranium abroad two days ago, cooling prospects for diplomatic handover despite earlier White House reports of Iranian indications and US proposals for a 20-year enrichment pause or $20 billion frozen asset release in exchange. Military options include a Pentagon plan briefed to President Trump for seizing nearly 1,000 pounds via excavation and airlift, though no action has occurred. Traders weigh diplomatic breakthroughs against escalation risks ahead of potential IAEA checks and talks deadlines.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.

Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.

A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$5,678,213
終了日
2026/12/31
マーケット開始日
Apr 17, 2026, 11:47 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify. Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure. A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify. Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure. A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify. Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure. A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify. Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure. A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing US-Iran nuclear negotiations center on Iran's stockpile of highly enriched uranium, recently estimated by the IAEA at over 400 kilograms of 60% purity material—a short step from weapons-grade—with verification challenges persisting after 2025 airstrikes. Tehran rejected transferring enriched uranium abroad two days ago, cooling prospects for diplomatic handover despite earlier White House reports of Iranian indications and US proposals for a 20-year enrichment pause or $20 billion frozen asset release in exchange. Military options include a Pentagon plan briefed to President Trump for seizing nearly 1,000 pounds via excavation and airlift, though no action has occurred. Traders weigh diplomatic breakthroughs against escalation risks ahead of potential IAEA checks and talks deadlines.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.

Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.

A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$5,678,213
終了日
2026/12/31
マーケット開始日
Apr 17, 2026, 11:47 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify. Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure. A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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よくある質問

「米国はイランの濃縮ウランを... ？」はPolymarket上の3個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「12月31日」で32%、次いで「5月31日」が23%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、32¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に32%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「米国はイランの濃縮ウランを... ？」は$5.7 millionの総取引量を生み出しています（Mar 31, 2026のマーケット開始以来）。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「米国はイランの濃縮ウランを... ？」で取引するには、このページに記載されている3個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「米国はイランの濃縮ウランを... ？」の現在のフロントランナーは「12月31日」で32%であり、市場がこの結果に32%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。次に近い結果は「5月31日」で23%です。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「米国はイランの濃縮ウランを... ？」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。