A fragile two-week US-Israel-Iran ceasefire, agreed April 8 amid the ongoing 2026 war sparked by February strikes on Iranian nuclear sites and leadership, has held direct hostilities at bay but faces strain from persistent Israeli strikes on Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon and Iran's intermittent Strait of Hormuz closures. President Trump's April 16 announcement of a 10-day Israel-Lebanon truce, including Hezbollah disarmament demands, signals de-escalation optimism yet underscores unresolved core disputes over proxies, nuclear enrichment, sanctions, and regional influence. No bilateral Israel-Iran diplomatic channels exist, with Tehran conditioning lasting talks on strike halts and reparations; expirations around April 22 and 26 loom as key tests for further escalation or negotiation breakthroughs.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
$20,610 Vol.
2026/05/31
April 22
7%
April 30
15%
6月30日
28%
$20,610 Vol.
April 22
$16,819 Vol.
7%
April 30
$2,635 Vol.
15%
6月30日
$1,162 Vol.
28%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.A fragile two-week US-Israel-Iran ceasefire, agreed April 8 amid the ongoing 2026 war sparked by February strikes on Iranian nuclear sites and leadership, has held direct hostilities at bay but faces strain from persistent Israeli strikes on Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon and Iran's intermittent Strait of Hormuz closures. President Trump's April 16 announcement of a 10-day Israel-Lebanon truce, including Hezbollah disarmament demands, signals de-escalation optimism yet underscores unresolved core disputes over proxies, nuclear enrichment, sanctions, and regional influence. No bilateral Israel-Iran diplomatic channels exist, with Tehran conditioning lasting talks on strike halts and reparations; expirations around April 22 and 26 loom as key tests for further escalation or negotiation breakthroughs.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Apr 16, 2026, 7:49 PM ET
音量
$20,610終了日
2026/05/31マーケット開始日
Apr 16, 2026, 7:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.A fragile two-week US-Israel-Iran ceasefire, agreed April 8 amid the ongoing 2026 war sparked by February strikes on Iranian nuclear sites and leadership, has held direct hostilities at bay but faces strain from persistent Israeli strikes on Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon and Iran's intermittent Strait of Hormuz closures. President Trump's April 16 announcement of a 10-day Israel-Lebanon truce, including Hezbollah disarmament demands, signals de-escalation optimism yet underscores unresolved core disputes over proxies, nuclear enrichment, sanctions, and regional influence. No bilateral Israel-Iran diplomatic channels exist, with Tehran conditioning lasting talks on strike halts and reparations; expirations around April 22 and 26 loom as key tests for further escalation or negotiation breakthroughs.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$20,610終了日
2026/05/31マーケット開始日
Apr 16, 2026, 7:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A fragile two-week US-Israel-Iran ceasefire, agreed April 8 amid the ongoing 2026 war sparked by February strikes on Iranian nuclear sites and leadership, has held direct hostilities at bay but faces strain from persistent Israeli strikes on Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon and Iran's intermittent Strait of Hormuz closures. President Trump's April 16 announcement of a 10-day Israel-Lebanon truce, including Hezbollah disarmament demands, signals de-escalation optimism yet underscores unresolved core disputes over proxies, nuclear enrichment, sanctions, and regional influence. No bilateral Israel-Iran diplomatic channels exist, with Tehran conditioning lasting talks on strike halts and reparations; expirations around April 22 and 26 loom as key tests for further escalation or negotiation breakthroughs.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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