A fragile two-week ceasefire between the United States, Israel, and Iran, announced April 7-8, 2026, has temporarily halted major Israeli airstrikes on Iranian territory following six weeks of intense US-Israeli operations since February 28 that targeted military, nuclear, and energy infrastructure. Iran retaliated with missile barrages on Israel and Gulf states, but recent diplomatic signals—including US Vice President JD Vance leading talks in Pakistan—aim to secure Strait of Hormuz reopening amid oil disruptions. Israel announced ceasing direct attacks on Iran while intensifying strikes against Hezbollah in Lebanon, though reports indicate overnight operations persisted into the truce. Traders weigh resumption risks tied to negotiation outcomes and the ceasefire's mid-April expiration, underscoring de-escalation pressures against proxy escalations.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日新規
$10,313 Vol.
2026/04/21
April 14
53%
April 21
67%
$10,313 Vol.
April 14
$3,317 Vol.
53%
April 21
$7,014 Vol.
67%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil between market creation and the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.A fragile two-week ceasefire between the United States, Israel, and Iran, announced April 7-8, 2026, has temporarily halted major Israeli airstrikes on Iranian territory following six weeks of intense US-Israeli operations since February 28 that targeted military, nuclear, and energy infrastructure. Iran retaliated with missile barrages on Israel and Gulf states, but recent diplomatic signals—including US Vice President JD Vance leading talks in Pakistan—aim to secure Strait of Hormuz reopening amid oil disruptions. Israel announced ceasing direct attacks on Iran while intensifying strikes against Hezbollah in Lebanon, though reports indicate overnight operations persisted into the truce. Traders weigh resumption risks tied to negotiation outcomes and the ceasefire's mid-April expiration, underscoring de-escalation pressures against proxy escalations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil between market creation and the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
マーケット開始日： Apr 8, 2026, 11:35 AM ET
音量
$10,313終了日
2026/04/21マーケット開始日
Apr 8, 2026, 11:35 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil between market creation and the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.A fragile two-week ceasefire between the United States, Israel, and Iran, announced April 7-8, 2026, has temporarily halted major Israeli airstrikes on Iranian territory following six weeks of intense US-Israeli operations since February 28 that targeted military, nuclear, and energy infrastructure. Iran retaliated with missile barrages on Israel and Gulf states, but recent diplomatic signals—including US Vice President JD Vance leading talks in Pakistan—aim to secure Strait of Hormuz reopening amid oil disruptions. Israel announced ceasing direct attacks on Iran while intensifying strikes against Hezbollah in Lebanon, though reports indicate overnight operations persisted into the truce. Traders weigh resumption risks tied to negotiation outcomes and the ceasefire's mid-April expiration, underscoring de-escalation pressures against proxy escalations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil between market creation and the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
音量
$10,313終了日
2026/04/21マーケット開始日
Apr 8, 2026, 11:35 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A fragile two-week ceasefire between the United States, Israel, and Iran, announced April 7-8, 2026, has temporarily halted major Israeli airstrikes on Iranian territory following six weeks of intense US-Israeli operations since February 28 that targeted military, nuclear, and energy infrastructure. Iran retaliated with missile barrages on Israel and Gulf states, but recent diplomatic signals—including US Vice President JD Vance leading talks in Pakistan—aim to secure Strait of Hormuz reopening amid oil disruptions. Israel announced ceasing direct attacks on Iran while intensifying strikes against Hezbollah in Lebanon, though reports indicate overnight operations persisted into the truce. Traders weigh resumption risks tied to negotiation outcomes and the ceasefire's mid-April expiration, underscoring de-escalation pressures against proxy escalations.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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