Trader consensus reflects low near-term odds for Israeli military action against Iran's fortified Fordow nuclear facility, following Israel's October 2024 airstrikes on Iranian military sites that explicitly spared nuclear infrastructure amid U.S. calls for restraint. IAEA reports confirm Iran's acceleration of uranium enrichment to 60% purity—near weapons-grade—at the underground Fordow plant, fueling Prime Minister Netanyahu's vows to dismantle Tehran's nuclear threat without specified timelines. Post-U.S. election shifts under President-elect Trump may enhance intelligence sharing and greenlight options, while Lebanon ceasefire frees Israeli resources. Key watches: December IAEA board meeting and any Iranian missile tests or proxy escalations.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日NEW
Apr 15, 2026
4月15日
33%
April 30
39%
$5 Vol.
4月15日
$0 Vol.
33%
April 30
$5 Vol.
39%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel carries out a kinetic military strike against the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant in Iran between the time of market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Israeli operatives on the ground. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Israeli air, missile, or drone strikes that are intercepted, shot down, or miss their target will not be considered for this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel carries out a kinetic military strike against the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant in Iran between the time of market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Israeli operatives on the ground. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Israeli air, missile, or drone strikes that are intercepted, shot down, or miss their target will not be considered for this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel carries out a kinetic military strike against the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant in Iran between the time of market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Israeli operatives on the ground. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Israeli air, missile, or drone strikes that are intercepted, shot down, or miss their target will not be considered for this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel carries out a kinetic military strike against the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant in Iran between the time of market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Israeli operatives on the ground. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Israeli air, missile, or drone strikes that are intercepted, shot down, or miss their target will not be considered for this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Israeli operatives on the ground. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Israeli air, missile, or drone strikes that are intercepted, shot down, or miss their target will not be considered for this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Mar 24, 2026, 4:54 PM ET
音量
$5終了日
Apr 30, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 24, 2026, 4:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel carries out a kinetic military strike against the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant in Iran between the time of market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Israeli operatives on the ground. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Israeli air, missile, or drone strikes that are intercepted, shot down, or miss their target will not be considered for this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel carries out a kinetic military strike against the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant in Iran between the time of market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Israeli operatives on the ground. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Israeli air, missile, or drone strikes that are intercepted, shot down, or miss their target will not be considered for this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$5終了日
Apr 30, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 24, 2026, 4:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects low near-term odds for Israeli military action against Iran's fortified Fordow nuclear facility, following Israel's October 2024 airstrikes on Iranian military sites that explicitly spared nuclear infrastructure amid U.S. calls for restraint. IAEA reports confirm Iran's acceleration of uranium enrichment to 60% purity—near weapons-grade—at the underground Fordow plant, fueling Prime Minister Netanyahu's vows to dismantle Tehran's nuclear threat without specified timelines. Post-U.S. election shifts under President-elect Trump may enhance intelligence sharing and greenlight options, while Lebanon ceasefire frees Israeli resources. Key watches: December IAEA board meeting and any Iranian missile tests or proxy escalations.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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