Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors 8–9 distinct commercial vessels successfully targeted by Iranian forces through April 30, reflecting verified tallies from the 2026 Iran war's Strait of Hormuz confrontations. The IRGC Navy's April 22 kinetic strikes on three ships—seizing MSC Francesca and Epaminondas while targeting a third—marked the final confirmed actions, elevating the cumulative count amid a U.S. naval blockade and fragile ceasefire talks that halted further escalation. No additional strikes or seizures materialized by month's end, as ship-tracking data and official reports solidified the 8–9 figure. Late verifications of unconfirmed prior incidents, attribution disputes distinguishing direct Iranian from proxy operations, or reclassifications of "successful" targeting could challenge this near-certain resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日8〜9 100.0%
2未満 <1%
2～3 <1%
4〜5 <1%
$262,920 Vol.
$262,920 Vol.
2026/04/30
2未満
いいえ
2～3
いいえ
4〜5
いいえ
6～7
いいえ
8〜9
はい
10+
いいえ
8〜9 100.0%
2未満 <1%
2～3 <1%
4〜5 <1%
$262,920 Vol.
$262,920 Vol.
2026/04/30
2未満
$24,731 Vol.
いいえ
2～3
$43,827 Vol.
いいえ
4〜5
$52,806 Vol.
いいえ
6～7
$45,107 Vol.
いいえ
8〜9
$39,409 Vol.
はい
10+
$57,039 Vol.
いいえ
This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors 8–9 distinct commercial vessels successfully targeted by Iranian forces through April 30, reflecting verified tallies from the 2026 Iran war's Strait of Hormuz confrontations. The IRGC Navy's April 22 kinetic strikes on three ships—seizing MSC Francesca and Epaminondas while targeting a third—marked the final confirmed actions, elevating the cumulative count amid a U.S. naval blockade and fragile ceasefire talks that halted further escalation. No additional strikes or seizures materialized by month's end, as ship-tracking data and official reports solidified the 8–9 figure. Late verifications of unconfirmed prior incidents, attribution disputes distinguishing direct Iranian from proxy operations, or reclassifications of "successful" targeting could challenge this near-certain resolution.
This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Mar 24, 2026, 1:08 PM ET
音量
$262,920終了日
2026/04/30マーケット開始日
Mar 24, 2026, 1:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...提案された結果: いいえ
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: いいえ
This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors 8–9 distinct commercial vessels successfully targeted by Iranian forces through April 30, reflecting verified tallies from the 2026 Iran war's Strait of Hormuz confrontations. The IRGC Navy's April 22 kinetic strikes on three ships—seizing MSC Francesca and Epaminondas while targeting a third—marked the final confirmed actions, elevating the cumulative count amid a U.S. naval blockade and fragile ceasefire talks that halted further escalation. No additional strikes or seizures materialized by month's end, as ship-tracking data and official reports solidified the 8–9 figure. Late verifications of unconfirmed prior incidents, attribution disputes distinguishing direct Iranian from proxy operations, or reclassifications of "successful" targeting could challenge this near-certain resolution.
This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$262,920終了日
2026/04/30マーケット開始日
Mar 24, 2026, 1:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...提案された結果: いいえ
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: いいえ
Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors 8–9 distinct commercial vessels successfully targeted by Iranian forces through April 30, reflecting verified tallies from the 2026 Iran war's Strait of Hormuz confrontations. The IRGC Navy's April 22 kinetic strikes on three ships—seizing MSC Francesca and Epaminondas while targeting a third—marked the final confirmed actions, elevating the cumulative count amid a U.S. naval blockade and fragile ceasefire talks that halted further escalation. No additional strikes or seizures materialized by month's end, as ship-tracking data and official reports solidified the 8–9 figure. Late verifications of unconfirmed prior incidents, attribution disputes distinguishing direct Iranian from proxy operations, or reclassifications of "successful" targeting could challenge this near-certain resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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