Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has remained inside the country since his March 2026 appointment following his father’s death in U.S.-Israeli strikes, with officials citing security needs amid ongoing conflict and assassination risks. Recent statements from President Masoud Pezeshkian on September 12, 2026, reaffirmed that Khamenei is alive, exercising authority, and in a protected location whose secrecy is treated as essential, while denying external speculation about his condition. No verified reports indicate departure from Iranian territory, and earlier rumors of medical evacuation abroad were rejected by regime sources. Traders assess low odds of exit by near-term deadlines because his role demands domestic continuity, wartime decision-making occurs through limited channels from within Iran, and any movement would face extreme logistical and political barriers in the current environment.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$117,838 Vol.
10月31日
3%
12月31日
5%
$117,838 Vol.
10月31日
3%
12月31日
5%
Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日: Aug 18, 2026, 12:48 PM ET
リゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
リゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has remained inside the country since his March 2026 appointment following his father’s death in U.S.-Israeli strikes, with officials citing security needs amid ongoing conflict and assassination risks. Recent statements from President Masoud Pezeshkian on September 12, 2026, reaffirmed that Khamenei is alive, exercising authority, and in a protected location whose secrecy is treated as essential, while denying external speculation about his condition. No verified reports indicate departure from Iranian territory, and earlier rumors of medical evacuation abroad were rejected by regime sources. Traders assess low odds of exit by near-term deadlines because his role demands domestic continuity, wartime decision-making occurs through limited channels from within Iran, and any movement would face extreme logistical and political barriers in the current environment.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日



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