Houthi rebels’ rapid seizure of Perim Island, Mokha, and other Red Sea coastal positions in early September 2026 has tightened control over Bab el-Mandeb approaches, halving daily transits to roughly 15–26 vessels from pre-crisis norms above 70. Tanker traffic data from Kpler and TankerMap show persistent but sharply reduced flows of crude, products, and dry bulk, with Saudi-linked shipments most affected by the declared maritime embargo. Brent crude has climbed above $104 per barrel amid the dual-chokepoint pressure with Hormuz, lifting war-risk premiums and prompting further Cape of Good Hope rerouting that elevates freight rates and extends voyage times. Trader sentiment on a complete zero-transit outcome reflects the gap between current partial disruption and the high threshold for total closure, tempered by Houthi statements limiting targeting and ongoing naval responses. Key near-term catalysts include any escalation in Yemen ground fighting or fresh attacks on non-embargoed vessels.