Reza Pahlavi remains in exile without having entered Iran in nearly five decades, and recent reporting indicates his effort to consolidate opposition support for a transitional role has lost momentum. The Islamic Republic demonstrated institutional continuity after Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's February 2026 death, amid U.S.-Israel strikes and protests, as its security forces stayed operational while domestic opposition groups stayed fragmented. Pahlavi's public statements and planning documents, including the Iran Prosperity Project, focus on post-regime scenarios such as a national referendum, yet no domestic referendum or power-transfer mechanism has materialized. Trader pricing reflects these structural barriers and the limited time remaining before year-end resolution, with only low-probability catalysts such as rapid regime collapse or decisive external intervention potentially enabling entry.