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icon for モイタバ・ハメネイが公の場に姿を現すのは... ？
地政学·中東

モイタバ・ハメネイが公の場に姿を現すのは... ？

icon for モイタバ・ハメネイが公の場に姿を現すのは... ？
地政学·中東

モイタバ・ハメネイが公の場に姿を現すのは... ？

$1,490,884 Vol.

2026/05/31
Polymarket

$1,490,884 Vol.

Polymarket

5月31日

$262,097 Vol.

7%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, is photographed or videotaped between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes," the images or video must be taken and released within this market's timeframe. The images or video must be authentic. Archival material, previously recorded footage, reused images, digitally altered content, AI-generated media, staged reproductions, or any posthumous releases will not qualify. Digital appearances, including live broadcasts, will count for this market. The resolution source for this market will be the image/video of Mojtaba Khamenei, and a consensus of credible reporting as to whether it is real.Mojtaba Khamenei, appointed Iran's Supreme Leader in March 2026 following Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's death amid the US-Israel-Iran war, has made no verified public appearance since, relying solely on written statements read by state TV anchors. A Russian envoy confirmed late March he is in-country but avoiding visibility for security reasons, fueling speculation on injury, seclusion, or IRGC dominance. Recent messages, including an April 30 pledge to safeguard nuclear and missile capabilities plus Strait of Hormuz warnings amid fragile ceasefire talks, maintain hardline rhetoric without visual proof. Traders monitor potential addresses or diplomatic escalations, like US navigation initiatives, that could trigger a sighting before resolution.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, is photographed or videotaped between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes," the images or video must be taken and released within this market's timeframe. The images or video must be authentic. Archival material, previously recorded footage, reused images, digitally altered content, AI-generated media, staged reproductions, or any posthumous releases will not qualify.

Digital appearances, including live broadcasts, will count for this market.

The resolution source for this market will be the image/video of Mojtaba Khamenei, and a consensus of credible reporting as to whether it is real.
音量
$1,490,884
終了日
2026/04/30
マーケット開始日
Mar 24, 2026, 4:03 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, is photographed or videotaped between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes," the images or video must be taken and released within this market's timeframe. The images or video must be authentic. Archival material, previously recorded footage, reused images, digitally altered content, AI-generated media, staged reproductions, or any posthumous releases will not qualify. Digital appearances, including live broadcasts, will count for this market. The resolution source for this market will be the image/video of Mojtaba Khamenei, and a consensus of credible reporting as to whether it is real.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, is photographed or videotaped between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes," the images or video must be taken and released within this market's timeframe. The images or video must be authentic. Archival material, previously recorded footage, reused images, digitally altered content, AI-generated media, staged reproductions, or any posthumous releases will not qualify. Digital appearances, including live broadcasts, will count for this market. The resolution source for this market will be the image/video of Mojtaba Khamenei, and a consensus of credible reporting as to whether it is real.Mojtaba Khamenei, appointed Iran's Supreme Leader in March 2026 following Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's death amid the US-Israel-Iran war, has made no verified public appearance since, relying solely on written statements read by state TV anchors. A Russian envoy confirmed late March he is in-country but avoiding visibility for security reasons, fueling speculation on injury, seclusion, or IRGC dominance. Recent messages, including an April 30 pledge to safeguard nuclear and missile capabilities plus Strait of Hormuz warnings amid fragile ceasefire talks, maintain hardline rhetoric without visual proof. Traders monitor potential addresses or diplomatic escalations, like US navigation initiatives, that could trigger a sighting before resolution.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, is photographed or videotaped between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes," the images or video must be taken and released within this market's timeframe. The images or video must be authentic. Archival material, previously recorded footage, reused images, digitally altered content, AI-generated media, staged reproductions, or any posthumous releases will not qualify.

Digital appearances, including live broadcasts, will count for this market.

The resolution source for this market will be the image/video of Mojtaba Khamenei, and a consensus of credible reporting as to whether it is real.
音量
$1,490,884
終了日
2026/04/30
マーケット開始日
Mar 24, 2026, 4:03 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, is photographed or videotaped between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes," the images or video must be taken and released within this market's timeframe. The images or video must be authentic. Archival material, previously recorded footage, reused images, digitally altered content, AI-generated media, staged reproductions, or any posthumous releases will not qualify. Digital appearances, including live broadcasts, will count for this market. The resolution source for this market will be the image/video of Mojtaba Khamenei, and a consensus of credible reporting as to whether it is real.

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よくある質問

「モイタバ・ハメネイが公の場に姿を現すのは... ？」はPolymarket上の5個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「5月31日」で7%、次いで「3月13日」が0%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、7¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に7%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「モイタバ・ハメネイが公の場に姿を現すのは... ？」は$1.5 millionの総取引量を生み出しています（Mar 9, 2026のマーケット開始以来）。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「モイタバ・ハメネイが公の場に姿を現すのは... ？」で取引するには、このページに記載されている5個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

これは非常に拮抗した市場です。「モイタバ・ハメネイが公の場に姿を現すのは... ？」の現在のリーダーは「5月31日」でわずか7%、「3月13日」が0%で僅差です。どの結果も強い多数派を占めていないため、トレーダーはこれを非常に不確実と見ており、独自の取引機会を提供する可能性があります。これらのオッズはリアルタイムで更新されますので、このページをブックマークしてください。

「モイタバ・ハメネイが公の場に姿を現すのは... ？」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。