JD Vance's position as Republican vice presidential nominee, without executive authority for direct diplomacy, anchors low trader consensus on him engaging Iranian negotiators by the market deadline. US-Iran indirect talks via Oman continue amid nuclear deal expiration risks and regional tensions from Israel-Hezbollah clashes, but State Department leads under Biden. Vance's public remarks echo Trump's "maximum pressure" approach, criticizing Tehran without signaling personal involvement. No official announcements indicate Vance participation. The November 5 election looms as a pivotal event: a Trump-Vance victory could elevate Vance's influence on Middle East policy, though formal negotiations remain presidential purview, sustaining market skepticism.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日NEW
Apr 30, 2026
3月31日
20%
4月30日
49%
$517 Vol.
3月31日
$399 Vol.
20%
4月30日
$118 Vol.
49%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if JD Vance talks with at least one Iranian negotiator by the listed date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
Qualifying Iranian negotiators are representatives of Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their government.
A talk is defined as any interaction between JD Vance and an Iranian negotiator, occurring either in person or through verbal communication by phone or video call.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if JD Vance talks with at least one Iranian negotiator by the listed date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
Qualifying Iranian negotiators are representatives of Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their government.
A talk is defined as any interaction between JD Vance and an Iranian negotiator, occurring either in person or through verbal communication by phone or video call.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if JD Vance talks with at least one Iranian negotiator by the listed date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
Qualifying Iranian negotiators are representatives of Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their government.
A talk is defined as any interaction between JD Vance and an Iranian negotiator, occurring either in person or through verbal communication by phone or video call.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if JD Vance talks with at least one Iranian negotiator by the listed date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
Qualifying Iranian negotiators are representatives of Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their government.
A talk is defined as any interaction between JD Vance and an Iranian negotiator, occurring either in person or through verbal communication by phone or video call.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Qualifying Iranian negotiators are representatives of Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their government.
A talk is defined as any interaction between JD Vance and an Iranian negotiator, occurring either in person or through verbal communication by phone or video call.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Mar 24, 2026, 6:08 PM ET
音量
$517終了日
Apr 30, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 24, 2026, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if JD Vance talks with at least one Iranian negotiator by the listed date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
Qualifying Iranian negotiators are representatives of Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their government.
A talk is defined as any interaction between JD Vance and an Iranian negotiator, occurring either in person or through verbal communication by phone or video call.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if JD Vance talks with at least one Iranian negotiator by the listed date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
Qualifying Iranian negotiators are representatives of Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their government.
A talk is defined as any interaction between JD Vance and an Iranian negotiator, occurring either in person or through verbal communication by phone or video call.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$517終了日
Apr 30, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 24, 2026, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...JD Vance's position as Republican vice presidential nominee, without executive authority for direct diplomacy, anchors low trader consensus on him engaging Iranian negotiators by the market deadline. US-Iran indirect talks via Oman continue amid nuclear deal expiration risks and regional tensions from Israel-Hezbollah clashes, but State Department leads under Biden. Vance's public remarks echo Trump's "maximum pressure" approach, criticizing Tehran without signaling personal involvement. No official announcements indicate Vance participation. The November 5 election looms as a pivotal event: a Trump-Vance victory could elevate Vance's influence on Middle East policy, though formal negotiations remain presidential purview, sustaining market skepticism.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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