Trader consensus on Israel's April strikes remains tightly clustered around 2 (42%), 3 (42%), and ≥4 (41%) countries, reflecting confirmed airstrikes in Syria—including the April 1 Damascus consulate attack killing Iranian generals—and Lebanon against Hezbollah targets, plus the April 19 limited retaliation in Iran following Tehran's April 13 missile barrage. The even split stems from debate over whether the downplayed Isfahan drone strike fully counts as hitting Iran, amid mutual de-escalation signals, while low odds for ≤1 acknowledge established multi-front engagements. Escalation to Houthi sites in Yemen or additional Syrian/Iraqi actions before month-end, or conversely diplomatic ceasefires, could tip probabilities decisively.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日3 43%
≥4 40%
≤1 35%
2 0
NEW
NEW
Apr 30, 2026
≤1
35%
2
43%
3
43%
≥4
40%
3 43%
≥4 40%
≤1 35%
2 0
NEW
NEW
Apr 30, 2026
≤1
$0 Vol.
35%
2
$1 Vol.
43%
3
$0 Vol.
43%
≥4
$0 Vol.
40%
This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Israel's April strikes remains tightly clustered around 2 (42%), 3 (42%), and ≥4 (41%) countries, reflecting confirmed airstrikes in Syria—including the April 1 Damascus consulate attack killing Iranian generals—and Lebanon against Hezbollah targets, plus the April 19 limited retaliation in Iran following Tehran's April 13 missile barrage. The even split stems from debate over whether the downplayed Isfahan drone strike fully counts as hitting Iran, amid mutual de-escalation signals, while low odds for ≤1 acknowledge established multi-front engagements. Escalation to Houthi sites in Yemen or additional Syrian/Iraqi actions before month-end, or conversely diplomatic ceasefires, could tip probabilities decisively.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Mar 27, 2026, 6:46 PM ET
音量
$1終了日
Apr 30, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 27, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Israel's April strikes remains tightly clustered around 2 (42%), 3 (42%), and ≥4 (41%) countries, reflecting confirmed airstrikes in Syria—including the April 1 Damascus consulate attack killing Iranian generals—and Lebanon against Hezbollah targets, plus the April 19 limited retaliation in Iran following Tehran's April 13 missile barrage. The even split stems from debate over whether the downplayed Isfahan drone strike fully counts as hitting Iran, amid mutual de-escalation signals, while low odds for ≤1 acknowledge established multi-front engagements. Escalation to Houthi sites in Yemen or additional Syrian/Iraqi actions before month-end, or conversely diplomatic ceasefires, could tip probabilities decisively.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$1終了日
Apr 30, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 27, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Israel's April strikes remains tightly clustered around 2 (42%), 3 (42%), and ≥4 (41%) countries, reflecting confirmed airstrikes in Syria—including the April 1 Damascus consulate attack killing Iranian generals—and Lebanon against Hezbollah targets, plus the April 19 limited retaliation in Iran following Tehran's April 13 missile barrage. The even split stems from debate over whether the downplayed Isfahan drone strike fully counts as hitting Iran, amid mutual de-escalation signals, while low odds for ≤1 acknowledge established multi-front engagements. Escalation to Houthi sites in Yemen or additional Syrian/Iraqi actions before month-end, or conversely diplomatic ceasefires, could tip probabilities decisively.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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