Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Gulf State military action against Iran by April 30, 2026, at under 1% implied probability, reflecting the absence of confirmed drone, missile, or air strikes on Iranian soil despite over 2,000 Iranian retaliatory attacks on GCC infrastructure—UAE absorbing 90%—since the US-Iran war escalated in March. GCC leaders, convening in Jeddah late April, urged faster military integration and US pressure on Tehran but prioritized diplomacy amid eroded trust and Strait of Hormuz risks, with UAE criticizing the bloc's "weakest" response. Disputed April 8 strikes on Iranian islands lack attribution consensus for resolution. Brent crude eased to $108/barrel from $126 peaks, decoupling GCC equities from oil windfalls via risk premia; fragile ceasefire and US-Iran talks loom as catalysts.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$1,319,062 Vol.
2026/04/30
4月15日
いいえ
4月30日
いいえ
$1,319,062 Vol.
4月15日
$697,752 Vol.
いいえ
4月30日
$621,310 Vol.
いいえ
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Gulf State initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil by 11:59 PM the listed date in Arabia Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any Gulf State's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iran's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements, multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Gulf State military action against Iran by April 30, 2026, at under 1% implied probability, reflecting the absence of confirmed drone, missile, or air strikes on Iranian soil despite over 2,000 Iranian retaliatory attacks on GCC infrastructure—UAE absorbing 90%—since the US-Iran war escalated in March. GCC leaders, convening in Jeddah late April, urged faster military integration and US pressure on Tehran but prioritized diplomacy amid eroded trust and Strait of Hormuz risks, with UAE criticizing the bloc's "weakest" response. Disputed April 8 strikes on Iranian islands lack attribution consensus for resolution. Brent crude eased to $108/barrel from $126 peaks, decoupling GCC equities from oil windfalls via risk premia; fragile ceasefire and US-Iran talks loom as catalysts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Gulf State initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil by 11:59 PM the listed date in Arabia Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any Gulf State's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iran's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements, multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any Gulf State's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iran's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements, multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
マーケット開始日： Mar 27, 2026, 1:42 PM ET
音量
$1,319,062終了日
2026/04/30マーケット開始日
Mar 27, 2026, 1:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...提案された結果: いいえ
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: いいえ
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Gulf State initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil by 11:59 PM the listed date in Arabia Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any Gulf State's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iran's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements, multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Gulf State military action against Iran by April 30, 2026, at under 1% implied probability, reflecting the absence of confirmed drone, missile, or air strikes on Iranian soil despite over 2,000 Iranian retaliatory attacks on GCC infrastructure—UAE absorbing 90%—since the US-Iran war escalated in March. GCC leaders, convening in Jeddah late April, urged faster military integration and US pressure on Tehran but prioritized diplomacy amid eroded trust and Strait of Hormuz risks, with UAE criticizing the bloc's "weakest" response. Disputed April 8 strikes on Iranian islands lack attribution consensus for resolution. Brent crude eased to $108/barrel from $126 peaks, decoupling GCC equities from oil windfalls via risk premia; fragile ceasefire and US-Iran talks loom as catalysts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Gulf State initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil by 11:59 PM the listed date in Arabia Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any Gulf State's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iran's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements, multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any Gulf State's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iran's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements, multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
音量
$1,319,062終了日
2026/04/30マーケット開始日
Mar 27, 2026, 1:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...提案された結果: いいえ
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: いいえ
Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Gulf State military action against Iran by April 30, 2026, at under 1% implied probability, reflecting the absence of confirmed drone, missile, or air strikes on Iranian soil despite over 2,000 Iranian retaliatory attacks on GCC infrastructure—UAE absorbing 90%—since the US-Iran war escalated in March. GCC leaders, convening in Jeddah late April, urged faster military integration and US pressure on Tehran but prioritized diplomacy amid eroded trust and Strait of Hormuz risks, with UAE criticizing the bloc's "weakest" response. Disputed April 8 strikes on Iranian islands lack attribution consensus for resolution. Brent crude eased to $108/barrel from $126 peaks, decoupling GCC equities from oil windfalls via risk premia; fragile ceasefire and US-Iran talks loom as catalysts.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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