Heightened Iran-Israel tensions, including Tehran's April 13 drone and missile barrage on Israel and subsequent Israeli airstrikes on Iranian air defenses, have intensified scrutiny on the Strait of Hormuz, a vital chokepoint for 20% of global oil shipments. US Navy's 5th Fleet, based in Bahrain, maintains routine patrols and transits through the strait without recent public disruptions, though Iran issued warnings against foreign warships amid its seizure of the MSC Aries container ship on April 13. No confirmed non-US naval transits by major powers like the UK, France, or China have occurred in the past 30 days. Traders eye potential escalatory responses, such as US carrier group movements or multinational naval task forces, before the April 30 deadline, alongside Houthi disruptions in the Red Sea influencing regional deployments.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日NEW
Apr 30, 2026
アメリカ合衆国
33%
France
24%
United Kingdom
23%
India
22%
Netherlands
21%
Canada
21%
Pakistan
21%
Italy
21%
Japan
21%
Greece
20%
Germany
19%
$0.00 Vol.
アメリカ合衆国
$0 Vol.
33%
France
$0 Vol.
24%
United Kingdom
$0 Vol.
23%
India
$0 Vol.
22%
Netherlands
$0 Vol.
21%
Canada
$0 Vol.
21%
Pakistan
$0 Vol.
21%
Italy
$0 Vol.
21%
Japan
$0 Vol.
21%
Greece
$0 Vol.
20%
Germany
$0 Vol.
19%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.Heightened Iran-Israel tensions, including Tehran's April 13 drone and missile barrage on Israel and subsequent Israeli airstrikes on Iranian air defenses, have intensified scrutiny on the Strait of Hormuz, a vital chokepoint for 20% of global oil shipments. US Navy's 5th Fleet, based in Bahrain, maintains routine patrols and transits through the strait without recent public disruptions, though Iran issued warnings against foreign warships amid its seizure of the MSC Aries container ship on April 13. No confirmed non-US naval transits by major powers like the UK, France, or China have occurred in the past 30 days. Traders eye potential escalatory responses, such as US carrier group movements or multinational naval task forces, before the April 30 deadline, alongside Houthi disruptions in the Red Sea influencing regional deployments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
マーケット開始日： Mar 27, 2026, 1:36 PM ET
音量
$0終了日
Apr 30, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 27, 2026, 1:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.Heightened Iran-Israel tensions, including Tehran's April 13 drone and missile barrage on Israel and subsequent Israeli airstrikes on Iranian air defenses, have intensified scrutiny on the Strait of Hormuz, a vital chokepoint for 20% of global oil shipments. US Navy's 5th Fleet, based in Bahrain, maintains routine patrols and transits through the strait without recent public disruptions, though Iran issued warnings against foreign warships amid its seizure of the MSC Aries container ship on April 13. No confirmed non-US naval transits by major powers like the UK, France, or China have occurred in the past 30 days. Traders eye potential escalatory responses, such as US carrier group movements or multinational naval task forces, before the April 30 deadline, alongside Houthi disruptions in the Red Sea influencing regional deployments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
音量
$0終了日
Apr 30, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 27, 2026, 1:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Heightened Iran-Israel tensions, including Tehran's April 13 drone and missile barrage on Israel and subsequent Israeli airstrikes on Iranian air defenses, have intensified scrutiny on the Strait of Hormuz, a vital chokepoint for 20% of global oil shipments. US Navy's 5th Fleet, based in Bahrain, maintains routine patrols and transits through the strait without recent public disruptions, though Iran issued warnings against foreign warships amid its seizure of the MSC Aries container ship on April 13. No confirmed non-US naval transits by major powers like the UK, France, or China have occurred in the past 30 days. Traders eye potential escalatory responses, such as US carrier group movements or multinational naval task forces, before the April 30 deadline, alongside Houthi disruptions in the Red Sea influencing regional deployments.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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