Amid escalating US-Israel airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities and military infrastructure, including Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi's March 27 claim that Israel hit two steel factories, a power plant, and civilian nuclear sites, trader consensus prices a 55% implied probability against further confirmed Israeli military action targeting an Iranian power plant by April 30. Israel's IDF has not acknowledged power plant strikes, emphasizing recent operations spared energy infrastructure following President Trump's extension of a 10-day pause on such targets amid "productive" ceasefire talks. Mutual threats of retaliation on regional power grids, including Iran's near-miss on Israel's Orot Rabin plant, underscore de-escalation pressures and verification uncertainties in the ongoing conflict.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日NEW
NEW
Apr 30, 2026
NEW
NEW
Apr 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel carries out a kinetic military strike against any power plant in Iran between the time of market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Israeli operatives on the ground. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Israeli air, missile, or drone strikes that are intercepted, shot down, or miss their target will not be considered for this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Amid escalating US-Israel airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities and military infrastructure, including Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi's March 27 claim that Israel hit two steel factories, a power plant, and civilian nuclear sites, trader consensus prices a 55% implied probability against further confirmed Israeli military action targeting an Iranian power plant by April 30. Israel's IDF has not acknowledged power plant strikes, emphasizing recent operations spared energy infrastructure following President Trump's extension of a 10-day pause on such targets amid "productive" ceasefire talks. Mutual threats of retaliation on regional power grids, including Iran's near-miss on Israel's Orot Rabin plant, underscore de-escalation pressures and verification uncertainties in the ongoing conflict.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel carries out a kinetic military strike against any power plant in Iran between the time of market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Israeli operatives on the ground. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Israeli air, missile, or drone strikes that are intercepted, shot down, or miss their target will not be considered for this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Israeli operatives on the ground. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Israeli air, missile, or drone strikes that are intercepted, shot down, or miss their target will not be considered for this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Mar 27, 2026, 1:42 PM ET
音量
$1,364終了日
Apr 30, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 27, 2026, 1:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel carries out a kinetic military strike against any power plant in Iran between the time of market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Israeli operatives on the ground. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Israeli air, missile, or drone strikes that are intercepted, shot down, or miss their target will not be considered for this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Amid escalating US-Israel airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities and military infrastructure, including Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi's March 27 claim that Israel hit two steel factories, a power plant, and civilian nuclear sites, trader consensus prices a 55% implied probability against further confirmed Israeli military action targeting an Iranian power plant by April 30. Israel's IDF has not acknowledged power plant strikes, emphasizing recent operations spared energy infrastructure following President Trump's extension of a 10-day pause on such targets amid "productive" ceasefire talks. Mutual threats of retaliation on regional power grids, including Iran's near-miss on Israel's Orot Rabin plant, underscore de-escalation pressures and verification uncertainties in the ongoing conflict.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel carries out a kinetic military strike against any power plant in Iran between the time of market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Israeli operatives on the ground. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Israeli air, missile, or drone strikes that are intercepted, shot down, or miss their target will not be considered for this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Israeli operatives on the ground. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Israeli air, missile, or drone strikes that are intercepted, shot down, or miss their target will not be considered for this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$1,364終了日
Apr 30, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 27, 2026, 1:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Amid escalating US-Israel airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities and military infrastructure, including Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi's March 27 claim that Israel hit two steel factories, a power plant, and civilian nuclear sites, trader consensus prices a 55% implied probability against further confirmed Israeli military action targeting an Iranian power plant by April 30. Israel's IDF has not acknowledged power plant strikes, emphasizing recent operations spared energy infrastructure following President Trump's extension of a 10-day pause on such targets amid "productive" ceasefire talks. Mutual threats of retaliation on regional power grids, including Iran's near-miss on Israel's Orot Rabin plant, underscore de-escalation pressures and verification uncertainties in the ongoing conflict.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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