President Trump announced a conditional two-week ceasefire with Iran on April 7, averting threatened U.S. airstrikes after Iranian forces reportedly mined the Strait of Hormuz, prompting U.S. and Israeli military actions. The deal requires Tehran to ensure safe passage through the strait and opens negotiations in Islamabad starting Friday, April 11, though conflicting statements—Iran claiming leverage, Trump hailing a "total victory"—and fresh reports of possible mines and Israeli strikes in Lebanon have put it at risk. Traders reflect this fragility in modest implied probabilities for an early end announcement, with de-escalation signals outweighing immediate escalation triggers amid diplomatic talks and Hormuz monitoring.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日新規
$183,825 Vol.
2026/04/10
4月10日
6%
4月12日
9%
4月15日
11%
4月18日
21%
4月21日
30%
$183,825 Vol.
4月10日
$55,961 Vol.
6%
4月12日
$35,896 Vol.
9%
4月15日
$17,063 Vol.
11%
4月18日
$14,366 Vol.
21%
4月21日
$26,203 Vol.
30%
On April 7–8, 2026, the United States and Iran agreed to a temporary two-week ceasefire aimed at halting direct hostilities and de-escalating the ongoing conflict.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the US military publicly and officially announces that the ceasefire between the United States and Iran has ended or is no longer in effect by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Qualifying statements must explicitly indicate that the ceasefire between the United States and Iran has ended, been terminated, or is no longer in effect, or use equivalently definitive language clearly signaling the end of the ceasefire commitment.
Statements that merely reference violations, breaches, or non-compliance with the ceasefire, without an explicit declaration that the US is no longer committed to the ceasefire, will not alone qualify.
Announcements of a new agreement (e.g, a broader peace framework) that supersedes the initial ceasefire agreement while maintaining a halt in direct military engagement between the United States and Iran will not qualify; only announcements that explicitly terminate the commitment to refrain from military hostilities will qualify.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks do not qualify.
Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account) will qualify. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the ceasefire actually ends in practice or whether hostilities resume will not be considered.President Trump announced a conditional two-week ceasefire with Iran on April 7, averting threatened U.S. airstrikes after Iranian forces reportedly mined the Strait of Hormuz, prompting U.S. and Israeli military actions. The deal requires Tehran to ensure safe passage through the strait and opens negotiations in Islamabad starting Friday, April 11, though conflicting statements—Iran claiming leverage, Trump hailing a "total victory"—and fresh reports of possible mines and Israeli strikes in Lebanon have put it at risk. Traders reflect this fragility in modest implied probabilities for an early end announcement, with de-escalation signals outweighing immediate escalation triggers amid diplomatic talks and Hormuz monitoring.
On April 7–8, 2026, the United States and Iran agreed to a temporary two-week ceasefire aimed at halting direct hostilities and de-escalating the ongoing conflict.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the US military publicly and officially announces that the ceasefire between the United States and Iran has ended or is no longer in effect by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Qualifying statements must explicitly indicate that the ceasefire between the United States and Iran has ended, been terminated, or is no longer in effect, or use equivalently definitive language clearly signaling the end of the ceasefire commitment.
Statements that merely reference violations, breaches, or non-compliance with the ceasefire, without an explicit declaration that the US is no longer committed to the ceasefire, will not alone qualify.
Announcements of a new agreement (e.g, a broader peace framework) that supersedes the initial ceasefire agreement while maintaining a halt in direct military engagement between the United States and Iran will not qualify; only announcements that explicitly terminate the commitment to refrain from military hostilities will qualify.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks do not qualify.
Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account) will qualify. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the ceasefire actually ends in practice or whether hostilities resume will not be considered.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the US military publicly and officially announces that the ceasefire between the United States and Iran has ended or is no longer in effect by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Qualifying statements must explicitly indicate that the ceasefire between the United States and Iran has ended, been terminated, or is no longer in effect, or use equivalently definitive language clearly signaling the end of the ceasefire commitment.
Statements that merely reference violations, breaches, or non-compliance with the ceasefire, without an explicit declaration that the US is no longer committed to the ceasefire, will not alone qualify.
Announcements of a new agreement (e.g, a broader peace framework) that supersedes the initial ceasefire agreement while maintaining a halt in direct military engagement between the United States and Iran will not qualify; only announcements that explicitly terminate the commitment to refrain from military hostilities will qualify.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks do not qualify.
Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account) will qualify. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the ceasefire actually ends in practice or whether hostilities resume will not be considered.
マーケット開始日： Apr 8, 2026, 1:07 PM ET
音量
$183,825終了日
2026/04/21マーケット開始日
Apr 8, 2026, 1:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...On April 7–8, 2026, the United States and Iran agreed to a temporary two-week ceasefire aimed at halting direct hostilities and de-escalating the ongoing conflict.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the US military publicly and officially announces that the ceasefire between the United States and Iran has ended or is no longer in effect by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Qualifying statements must explicitly indicate that the ceasefire between the United States and Iran has ended, been terminated, or is no longer in effect, or use equivalently definitive language clearly signaling the end of the ceasefire commitment.
Statements that merely reference violations, breaches, or non-compliance with the ceasefire, without an explicit declaration that the US is no longer committed to the ceasefire, will not alone qualify.
Announcements of a new agreement (e.g, a broader peace framework) that supersedes the initial ceasefire agreement while maintaining a halt in direct military engagement between the United States and Iran will not qualify; only announcements that explicitly terminate the commitment to refrain from military hostilities will qualify.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks do not qualify.
Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account) will qualify. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the ceasefire actually ends in practice or whether hostilities resume will not be considered.President Trump announced a conditional two-week ceasefire with Iran on April 7, averting threatened U.S. airstrikes after Iranian forces reportedly mined the Strait of Hormuz, prompting U.S. and Israeli military actions. The deal requires Tehran to ensure safe passage through the strait and opens negotiations in Islamabad starting Friday, April 11, though conflicting statements—Iran claiming leverage, Trump hailing a "total victory"—and fresh reports of possible mines and Israeli strikes in Lebanon have put it at risk. Traders reflect this fragility in modest implied probabilities for an early end announcement, with de-escalation signals outweighing immediate escalation triggers amid diplomatic talks and Hormuz monitoring.
On April 7–8, 2026, the United States and Iran agreed to a temporary two-week ceasefire aimed at halting direct hostilities and de-escalating the ongoing conflict.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the US military publicly and officially announces that the ceasefire between the United States and Iran has ended or is no longer in effect by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Qualifying statements must explicitly indicate that the ceasefire between the United States and Iran has ended, been terminated, or is no longer in effect, or use equivalently definitive language clearly signaling the end of the ceasefire commitment.
Statements that merely reference violations, breaches, or non-compliance with the ceasefire, without an explicit declaration that the US is no longer committed to the ceasefire, will not alone qualify.
Announcements of a new agreement (e.g, a broader peace framework) that supersedes the initial ceasefire agreement while maintaining a halt in direct military engagement between the United States and Iran will not qualify; only announcements that explicitly terminate the commitment to refrain from military hostilities will qualify.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks do not qualify.
Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account) will qualify. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the ceasefire actually ends in practice or whether hostilities resume will not be considered.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the US military publicly and officially announces that the ceasefire between the United States and Iran has ended or is no longer in effect by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Qualifying statements must explicitly indicate that the ceasefire between the United States and Iran has ended, been terminated, or is no longer in effect, or use equivalently definitive language clearly signaling the end of the ceasefire commitment.
Statements that merely reference violations, breaches, or non-compliance with the ceasefire, without an explicit declaration that the US is no longer committed to the ceasefire, will not alone qualify.
Announcements of a new agreement (e.g, a broader peace framework) that supersedes the initial ceasefire agreement while maintaining a halt in direct military engagement between the United States and Iran will not qualify; only announcements that explicitly terminate the commitment to refrain from military hostilities will qualify.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks do not qualify.
Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account) will qualify. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the ceasefire actually ends in practice or whether hostilities resume will not be considered.
音量
$183,825終了日
2026/04/21マーケット開始日
Apr 8, 2026, 1:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Trump announced a conditional two-week ceasefire with Iran on April 7, averting threatened U.S. airstrikes after Iranian forces reportedly mined the Strait of Hormuz, prompting U.S. and Israeli military actions. The deal requires Tehran to ensure safe passage through the strait and opens negotiations in Islamabad starting Friday, April 11, though conflicting statements—Iran claiming leverage, Trump hailing a "total victory"—and fresh reports of possible mines and Israeli strikes in Lebanon have put it at risk. Traders reflect this fragility in modest implied probabilities for an early end announcement, with de-escalation signals outweighing immediate escalation triggers amid diplomatic talks and Hormuz monitoring.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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