Stalled US-Iran nuclear negotiations, including a rejected 15-point US plan demanding Iran ship out its 440kg stockpile of 60% enriched uranium, underpin trader consensus pricing "No" at 81.5% for US possession by May 31. Recent IAEA reports from late February highlight Iran's restricted inspector access and fortified storage at sites like Isfahan, potentially holding all highly enriched uranium after preemptive transfers ahead of 2025 US strikes. March developments feature Trump administration discussions of special forces raids to seize stockpiles amid ongoing airstrikes on Natanz and ammunition depots, but escalation risks and operational hurdles deter near-term success. Absent diplomatic breakthrough or confirmed military action, traders see significant barriers to resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/05/31
新規
新規
2026/05/31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Stalled US-Iran nuclear negotiations, including a rejected 15-point US plan demanding Iran ship out its 440kg stockpile of 60% enriched uranium, underpin trader consensus pricing "No" at 81.5% for US possession by May 31. Recent IAEA reports from late February highlight Iran's restricted inspector access and fortified storage at sites like Isfahan, potentially holding all highly enriched uranium after preemptive transfers ahead of 2025 US strikes. March developments feature Trump administration discussions of special forces raids to seize stockpiles amid ongoing airstrikes on Natanz and ammunition depots, but escalation risks and operational hurdles deter near-term success. Absent diplomatic breakthrough or confirmed military action, traders see significant barriers to resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Mar 31, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
音量
$9,842終了日
2026/05/31マーケット開始日
Mar 31, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Stalled US-Iran nuclear negotiations, including a rejected 15-point US plan demanding Iran ship out its 440kg stockpile of 60% enriched uranium, underpin trader consensus pricing "No" at 81.5% for US possession by May 31. Recent IAEA reports from late February highlight Iran's restricted inspector access and fortified storage at sites like Isfahan, potentially holding all highly enriched uranium after preemptive transfers ahead of 2025 US strikes. March developments feature Trump administration discussions of special forces raids to seize stockpiles amid ongoing airstrikes on Natanz and ammunition depots, but escalation risks and operational hurdles deter near-term success. Absent diplomatic breakthrough or confirmed military action, traders see significant barriers to resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$9,842終了日
2026/05/31マーケット開始日
Mar 31, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Stalled US-Iran nuclear negotiations, including a rejected 15-point US plan demanding Iran ship out its 440kg stockpile of 60% enriched uranium, underpin trader consensus pricing "No" at 81.5% for US possession by May 31. Recent IAEA reports from late February highlight Iran's restricted inspector access and fortified storage at sites like Isfahan, potentially holding all highly enriched uranium after preemptive transfers ahead of 2025 US strikes. March developments feature Trump administration discussions of special forces raids to seize stockpiles amid ongoing airstrikes on Natanz and ammunition depots, but escalation risks and operational hurdles deter near-term success. Absent diplomatic breakthrough or confirmed military action, traders see significant barriers to resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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