The US and Iran reached a two-week ceasefire agreement on April 7, 2026, suspending military actions, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and setting direct talks in Islamabad for April 11 to explore a comprehensive peace deal. Iran outlined a 10-point proposal demanding full sanctions relief, uranium enrichment rights, and Hormuz transit fees, while preconditioning lasting negotiations on US restraint. This de-escalation follows five weeks of conflict, including US and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear sites and missile programs amid stalled 2025 talks. Persistent divides over nuclear curbs, proxy militias, and ballistic missiles heighten uncertainty, with historical JCPOA failures highlighting breakdown risks ahead of the truce's expiration.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日新規
$86,184 Vol.
2026/04/22
4月22日
12%
4月30日
12%
5月31日
33%
$86,184 Vol.
4月22日
$63,759 Vol.
12%
4月30日
$14,449 Vol.
12%
5月31日
$10,247 Vol.
33%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The US and Iran reached a two-week ceasefire agreement on April 7, 2026, suspending military actions, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and setting direct talks in Islamabad for April 11 to explore a comprehensive peace deal. Iran outlined a 10-point proposal demanding full sanctions relief, uranium enrichment rights, and Hormuz transit fees, while preconditioning lasting negotiations on US restraint. This de-escalation follows five weeks of conflict, including US and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear sites and missile programs amid stalled 2025 talks. Persistent divides over nuclear curbs, proxy militias, and ballistic missiles heighten uncertainty, with historical JCPOA failures highlighting breakdown risks ahead of the truce's expiration.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Apr 8, 2026, 12:11 PM ET
音量
$86,184終了日
2026/05/31マーケット開始日
Apr 8, 2026, 12:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The US and Iran reached a two-week ceasefire agreement on April 7, 2026, suspending military actions, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and setting direct talks in Islamabad for April 11 to explore a comprehensive peace deal. Iran outlined a 10-point proposal demanding full sanctions relief, uranium enrichment rights, and Hormuz transit fees, while preconditioning lasting negotiations on US restraint. This de-escalation follows five weeks of conflict, including US and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear sites and missile programs amid stalled 2025 talks. Persistent divides over nuclear curbs, proxy militias, and ballistic missiles heighten uncertainty, with historical JCPOA failures highlighting breakdown risks ahead of the truce's expiration.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$86,184終了日
2026/05/31マーケット開始日
Apr 8, 2026, 12:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The US and Iran reached a two-week ceasefire agreement on April 7, 2026, suspending military actions, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and setting direct talks in Islamabad for April 11 to explore a comprehensive peace deal. Iran outlined a 10-point proposal demanding full sanctions relief, uranium enrichment rights, and Hormuz transit fees, while preconditioning lasting negotiations on US restraint. This de-escalation follows five weeks of conflict, including US and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear sites and missile programs amid stalled 2025 talks. Persistent divides over nuclear curbs, proxy militias, and ballistic missiles heighten uncertainty, with historical JCPOA failures highlighting breakdown risks ahead of the truce's expiration.
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