US-Iran diplomatic tensions persist after marathon peace talks in Islamabad ended without agreement on April 12, 2026, prompting the US to impose a naval blockade on the Strait of Hormuz amid a fragile ceasefire. Vice President JD Vance led the US delegation, facing Iranian demands over sanctions relief and nuclear constraints, while Tehran cited last-minute US conditions as the impasse. President Trump signaled Iranian outreach for renewed negotiations, with diplomats now arranging a potential second round as early as this week in Islamabad or Geneva before the ceasefire expires. Traders weigh fragile de-escalation signals against blockade risks and historical negotiation deadlocks, with no confirmed meeting date yet.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$632,188 Vol.
2026/04/30
4月15日
1%
4月16日
6%
4月17日
19%
4月18日
47%
4月22日
78%
4月30日
88%
$632,188 Vol.
4月15日
$20,335 Vol.
1%
4月16日
$31,741 Vol.
6%
4月17日
$12,098 Vol.
19%
4月18日
$326,324 Vol.
47%
4月22日
$161,863 Vol.
78%
4月30日
$79,853 Vol.
88%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.US-Iran diplomatic tensions persist after marathon peace talks in Islamabad ended without agreement on April 12, 2026, prompting the US to impose a naval blockade on the Strait of Hormuz amid a fragile ceasefire. Vice President JD Vance led the US delegation, facing Iranian demands over sanctions relief and nuclear constraints, while Tehran cited last-minute US conditions as the impasse. President Trump signaled Iranian outreach for renewed negotiations, with diplomats now arranging a potential second round as early as this week in Islamabad or Geneva before the ceasefire expires. Traders weigh fragile de-escalation signals against blockade risks and historical negotiation deadlocks, with no confirmed meeting date yet.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Apr 14, 2026, 12:07 PM ET
音量
$632,188終了日
2026/04/30マーケット開始日
Apr 14, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.US-Iran diplomatic tensions persist after marathon peace talks in Islamabad ended without agreement on April 12, 2026, prompting the US to impose a naval blockade on the Strait of Hormuz amid a fragile ceasefire. Vice President JD Vance led the US delegation, facing Iranian demands over sanctions relief and nuclear constraints, while Tehran cited last-minute US conditions as the impasse. President Trump signaled Iranian outreach for renewed negotiations, with diplomats now arranging a potential second round as early as this week in Islamabad or Geneva before the ceasefire expires. Traders weigh fragile de-escalation signals against blockade risks and historical negotiation deadlocks, with no confirmed meeting date yet.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$632,188終了日
2026/04/30マーケット開始日
Apr 14, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US-Iran diplomatic tensions persist after marathon peace talks in Islamabad ended without agreement on April 12, 2026, prompting the US to impose a naval blockade on the Strait of Hormuz amid a fragile ceasefire. Vice President JD Vance led the US delegation, facing Iranian demands over sanctions relief and nuclear constraints, while Tehran cited last-minute US conditions as the impasse. President Trump signaled Iranian outreach for renewed negotiations, with diplomats now arranging a potential second round as early as this week in Islamabad or Geneva before the ceasefire expires. Traders weigh fragile de-escalation signals against blockade risks and historical negotiation deadlocks, with no confirmed meeting date yet.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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