Vice President JD Vance led the highest-level U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks in Islamabad on April 11-12 amid a fragile two-week ceasefire, meeting Iranian officials including Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi but failing to secure a deal on nuclear curbs or Hormuz shipping, prompting a U.S. naval blockade starting April 13. Traders weigh ambiguity over whether Vance's participation qualifies under market rules requiring in-person negotiation presence, as reports describe trilateral Pakistani mediation. President Trump signaled openness to resumed talks within days on April 14, with diplomats racing for a second round before the ceasefire expires, potentially involving Vance again, special envoy Steve Witkoff, or Trump himself amid escalation risks in the Strait of Hormuz.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
2026/04/30
Donald Trump
3%
J.D. Vance
66%
Marco Rubio
21%
Jared Kushner
67%
Steve Witkoff
69%
$174 Vol.
Donald Trump
$32 Vol.
3%
J.D. Vance
$93 Vol.
66%
Marco Rubio
$0 Vol.
21%
Jared Kushner
$11 Vol.
67%
Steve Witkoff
$38 Vol.
69%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between the listed individual, acting as a representative of the United States, and representatives of Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
To qualify, the listed individual must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Vice President JD Vance led the highest-level U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks in Islamabad on April 11-12 amid a fragile two-week ceasefire, meeting Iranian officials including Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi but failing to secure a deal on nuclear curbs or Hormuz shipping, prompting a U.S. naval blockade starting April 13. Traders weigh ambiguity over whether Vance's participation qualifies under market rules requiring in-person negotiation presence, as reports describe trilateral Pakistani mediation. President Trump signaled openness to resumed talks within days on April 14, with diplomats racing for a second round before the ceasefire expires, potentially involving Vance again, special envoy Steve Witkoff, or Trump himself amid escalation risks in the Strait of Hormuz.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between the listed individual, acting as a representative of the United States, and representatives of Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
To qualify, the listed individual must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
To qualify, the listed individual must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
マーケット開始日： Apr 14, 2026, 6:41 PM ET
音量
$174終了日
2026/04/30マーケット開始日
Apr 14, 2026, 6:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between the listed individual, acting as a representative of the United States, and representatives of Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
To qualify, the listed individual must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Vice President JD Vance led the highest-level U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks in Islamabad on April 11-12 amid a fragile two-week ceasefire, meeting Iranian officials including Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi but failing to secure a deal on nuclear curbs or Hormuz shipping, prompting a U.S. naval blockade starting April 13. Traders weigh ambiguity over whether Vance's participation qualifies under market rules requiring in-person negotiation presence, as reports describe trilateral Pakistani mediation. President Trump signaled openness to resumed talks within days on April 14, with diplomats racing for a second round before the ceasefire expires, potentially involving Vance again, special envoy Steve Witkoff, or Trump himself amid escalation risks in the Strait of Hormuz.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between the listed individual, acting as a representative of the United States, and representatives of Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
To qualify, the listed individual must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
To qualify, the listed individual must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
音量
$174終了日
2026/04/30マーケット開始日
Apr 14, 2026, 6:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Vice President JD Vance led the highest-level U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks in Islamabad on April 11-12 amid a fragile two-week ceasefire, meeting Iranian officials including Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi but failing to secure a deal on nuclear curbs or Hormuz shipping, prompting a U.S. naval blockade starting April 13. Traders weigh ambiguity over whether Vance's participation qualifies under market rules requiring in-person negotiation presence, as reports describe trilateral Pakistani mediation. President Trump signaled openness to resumed talks within days on April 14, with diplomats racing for a second round before the ceasefire expires, potentially involving Vance again, special envoy Steve Witkoff, or Trump himself amid escalation risks in the Strait of Hormuz.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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