Trader consensus prices a Democratic blue wave in the 2026 midterms at 86%, reflecting persistent leads in generic congressional ballot polls averaging 5-6 points nationally, as shown in recent April surveys from CNN and Harvard CAPS/Harris, alongside President Trump's approval rating falling to 34-42% amid economic pressures and foreign policy tensions. Historical midterm patterns heavily favor the opposition party, which typically loses 26 House seats on average under similar conditions, amplifying expectations of Democratic House gains and potential Senate flips in battlegrounds like Georgia and Alaska. Despite a April 29 Supreme Court ruling curbing Voting Rights Act use in redistricting to aid Republican map-drawing, traders emphasize voter backlash in swing states and districts as the dominant driver ahead of November elections.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$39,831 Vol.
$39,831 Vol.
2026/11/30
はい
$39,831 Vol.
$39,831 Vol.
2026/11/30
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:
- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdfTrader consensus prices a Democratic blue wave in the 2026 midterms at 86%, reflecting persistent leads in generic congressional ballot polls averaging 5-6 points nationally, as shown in recent April surveys from CNN and Harvard CAPS/Harris, alongside President Trump's approval rating falling to 34-42% amid economic pressures and foreign policy tensions. Historical midterm patterns heavily favor the opposition party, which typically loses 26 House seats on average under similar conditions, amplifying expectations of Democratic House gains and potential Senate flips in battlegrounds like Georgia and Alaska. Despite a April 29 Supreme Court ruling curbing Voting Rights Act use in redistricting to aid Republican map-drawing, traders emphasize voter backlash in swing states and districts as the dominant driver ahead of November elections.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:
- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdf
- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdf
マーケット開始日： Jan 13, 2026, 7:52 PM ET
音量
$39,831終了日
2026/11/30マーケット開始日
Jan 13, 2026, 7:52 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:
- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdfTrader consensus prices a Democratic blue wave in the 2026 midterms at 86%, reflecting persistent leads in generic congressional ballot polls averaging 5-6 points nationally, as shown in recent April surveys from CNN and Harvard CAPS/Harris, alongside President Trump's approval rating falling to 34-42% amid economic pressures and foreign policy tensions. Historical midterm patterns heavily favor the opposition party, which typically loses 26 House seats on average under similar conditions, amplifying expectations of Democratic House gains and potential Senate flips in battlegrounds like Georgia and Alaska. Despite a April 29 Supreme Court ruling curbing Voting Rights Act use in redistricting to aid Republican map-drawing, traders emphasize voter backlash in swing states and districts as the dominant driver ahead of November elections.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:
- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdf
- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdf
音量
$39,831終了日
2026/11/30マーケット開始日
Jan 13, 2026, 7:52 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a Democratic blue wave in the 2026 midterms at 86%, reflecting persistent leads in generic congressional ballot polls averaging 5-6 points nationally, as shown in recent April surveys from CNN and Harvard CAPS/Harris, alongside President Trump's approval rating falling to 34-42% amid economic pressures and foreign policy tensions. Historical midterm patterns heavily favor the opposition party, which typically loses 26 House seats on average under similar conditions, amplifying expectations of Democratic House gains and potential Senate flips in battlegrounds like Georgia and Alaska. Despite a April 29 Supreme Court ruling curbing Voting Rights Act use in redistricting to aid Republican map-drawing, traders emphasize voter backlash in swing states and districts as the dominant driver ahead of November elections.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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