Republicans enter the 2026 midterms defending a narrow majority of roughly 218 seats following the 2024 elections. Trader pricing across the seat bins centers on outcomes between 190 and 214, reflecting the typical midterm penalty for the president's party, a sustained Democratic lead of 5–7 points on the generic congressional ballot, and multiple toss-up and lean-D districts in Cook and other ratings. Recent special elections have shown consistent Democratic overperformance, while redistricting changes in several Republican-led states have provided only partial offsets. Key variables that could consolidate support around specific bins include final turnout patterns in battlegrounds, candidate recruitment in open seats, and any late shifts in national economic sentiment or presidential approval ahead of November.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日190未満 24%
190〜194 13%
195〜199 12%
200～204 11.6%
$286,502 Vol.
$286,502 Vol.
2026/11/03
190未満
24%
190〜194
13%
195〜199
12%
200～204
12%
205～209
11%
210〜214
9%
215〜219
7%
220〜224
8%
225〜229
9%
230以上
5%
190未満 24%
190〜194 13%
195〜199 12%
200～204 11.6%
$286,502 Vol.
$286,502 Vol.
2026/11/03
190未満
$32,984 Vol.
24%
190〜194
$13,778 Vol.
13%
195〜199
$32,609 Vol.
12%
200～204
$24,750 Vol.
12%
205～209
$40,227 Vol.
11%
210〜214
$15,669 Vol.
9%
215〜219
$11,450 Vol.
7%
220〜224
$59,267 Vol.
8%
225〜229
$24,767 Vol.
9%
230以上
$31,001 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.Republicans enter the 2026 midterms defending a narrow majority of roughly 218 seats following the 2024 elections. Trader pricing across the seat bins centers on outcomes between 190 and 214, reflecting the typical midterm penalty for the president's party, a sustained Democratic lead of 5–7 points on the generic congressional ballot, and multiple toss-up and lean-D districts in Cook and other ratings. Recent special elections have shown consistent Democratic overperformance, while redistricting changes in several Republican-led states have provided only partial offsets. Key variables that could consolidate support around specific bins include final turnout patterns in battlegrounds, candidate recruitment in open seats, and any late shifts in national economic sentiment or presidential approval ahead of November.
This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Dec 18, 2025, 8:56 PM ET
音量
$286,502終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Dec 18, 2025, 8:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.Republicans enter the 2026 midterms defending a narrow majority of roughly 218 seats following the 2024 elections. Trader pricing across the seat bins centers on outcomes between 190 and 214, reflecting the typical midterm penalty for the president's party, a sustained Democratic lead of 5–7 points on the generic congressional ballot, and multiple toss-up and lean-D districts in Cook and other ratings. Recent special elections have shown consistent Democratic overperformance, while redistricting changes in several Republican-led states have provided only partial offsets. Key variables that could consolidate support around specific bins include final turnout patterns in battlegrounds, candidate recruitment in open seats, and any late shifts in national economic sentiment or presidential approval ahead of November.
This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$286,502終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Dec 18, 2025, 8:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Republicans enter the 2026 midterms defending a narrow majority of roughly 218 seats following the 2024 elections. Trader pricing across the seat bins centers on outcomes between 190 and 214, reflecting the typical midterm penalty for the president's party, a sustained Democratic lead of 5–7 points on the generic congressional ballot, and multiple toss-up and lean-D districts in Cook and other ratings. Recent special elections have shown consistent Democratic overperformance, while redistricting changes in several Republican-led states have provided only partial offsets. Key variables that could consolidate support around specific bins include final turnout patterns in battlegrounds, candidate recruitment in open seats, and any late shifts in national economic sentiment or presidential approval ahead of November.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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