Maine’s 2nd congressional district features an open seat after Democratic incumbent Jared Golden retired, pitting Republican nominee Paul LePage against Democratic nominee Matt Dunlap in a structurally Republican-leaning rural district that Trump carried by roughly 10 points in 2024. Recent July polling shows the race essentially tied, with Dunlap at 49% and LePage at 48%, reflecting LePage’s strong name recognition and fundraising edge against Dunlap’s state government experience and local profile. Forecasters rate the contest Lean or Likely Republican, consistent with trader consensus favoring the GOP at 57% implied probability, though the narrow polling margins and potential shifts in turnout or late endorsements keep the outcome closely contested ahead of the November general election.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/11/02
共和党
56%
民主党
43%
新規
新規
2026/11/02
共和党
$5,595 Vol.
56%
民主党
$2,002 Vol.
43%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ME-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Maine’s 2nd congressional district features an open seat after Democratic incumbent Jared Golden retired, pitting Republican nominee Paul LePage against Democratic nominee Matt Dunlap in a structurally Republican-leaning rural district that Trump carried by roughly 10 points in 2024. Recent July polling shows the race essentially tied, with Dunlap at 49% and LePage at 48%, reflecting LePage’s strong name recognition and fundraising edge against Dunlap’s state government experience and local profile. Forecasters rate the contest Lean or Likely Republican, consistent with trader consensus favoring the GOP at 57% implied probability, though the narrow polling margins and potential shifts in turnout or late endorsements keep the outcome closely contested ahead of the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ME-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jul 20, 2026, 6:15 PM ET
音量
$7,597終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jul 20, 2026, 6:15 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ME-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Maine’s 2nd congressional district features an open seat after Democratic incumbent Jared Golden retired, pitting Republican nominee Paul LePage against Democratic nominee Matt Dunlap in a structurally Republican-leaning rural district that Trump carried by roughly 10 points in 2024. Recent July polling shows the race essentially tied, with Dunlap at 49% and LePage at 48%, reflecting LePage’s strong name recognition and fundraising edge against Dunlap’s state government experience and local profile. Forecasters rate the contest Lean or Likely Republican, consistent with trader consensus favoring the GOP at 57% implied probability, though the narrow polling margins and potential shifts in turnout or late endorsements keep the outcome closely contested ahead of the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ME-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$7,597終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jul 20, 2026, 6:15 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Maine’s 2nd congressional district features an open seat after Democratic incumbent Jared Golden retired, pitting Republican nominee Paul LePage against Democratic nominee Matt Dunlap in a structurally Republican-leaning rural district that Trump carried by roughly 10 points in 2024. Recent July polling shows the race essentially tied, with Dunlap at 49% and LePage at 48%, reflecting LePage’s strong name recognition and fundraising edge against Dunlap’s state government experience and local profile. Forecasters rate the contest Lean or Likely Republican, consistent with trader consensus favoring the GOP at 57% implied probability, though the narrow polling margins and potential shifts in turnout or late endorsements keep the outcome closely contested ahead of the November general election.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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