The open Michigan Senate seat, following incumbent Democrat Gary Peters' retirement, has produced a competitive general election outlook where traders assign Democrats a 69.5% implied probability. Key factors include Michigan's recent electoral patterns in a swing state, Democratic primary polling showing viable contenders such as Representative Haley Stevens and Abdul El-Sayed performing competitively or ahead in hypothetical matchups against Republican Mike Rogers, and the latter's prior narrow 2024 loss in the state. Recent developments include active Democratic primary spending by aligned groups ahead of the August 4 contest and early general election surveys from May and June indicating modest Democratic leads in head-to-head tests. These elements have shaped trader consensus around a modest Democratic edge while leaving room for shifts from primary outcomes or later campaign dynamics.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$117,177 Vol.
$117,177 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
70%
共和党
28%
$117,177 Vol.
$117,177 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
$83,216 Vol.
70%
共和党
$33,961 Vol.
28%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Michigan U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.The open Michigan Senate seat, following incumbent Democrat Gary Peters' retirement, has produced a competitive general election outlook where traders assign Democrats a 69.5% implied probability. Key factors include Michigan's recent electoral patterns in a swing state, Democratic primary polling showing viable contenders such as Representative Haley Stevens and Abdul El-Sayed performing competitively or ahead in hypothetical matchups against Republican Mike Rogers, and the latter's prior narrow 2024 loss in the state. Recent developments include active Democratic primary spending by aligned groups ahead of the August 4 contest and early general election surveys from May and June indicating modest Democratic leads in head-to-head tests. These elements have shaped trader consensus around a modest Democratic edge while leaving room for shifts from primary outcomes or later campaign dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Michigan U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
マーケット開始日： Oct 13, 2025, 5:07 PM ET
音量
$117,177終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Oct 13, 2025, 5:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Michigan U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.The open Michigan Senate seat, following incumbent Democrat Gary Peters' retirement, has produced a competitive general election outlook where traders assign Democrats a 69.5% implied probability. Key factors include Michigan's recent electoral patterns in a swing state, Democratic primary polling showing viable contenders such as Representative Haley Stevens and Abdul El-Sayed performing competitively or ahead in hypothetical matchups against Republican Mike Rogers, and the latter's prior narrow 2024 loss in the state. Recent developments include active Democratic primary spending by aligned groups ahead of the August 4 contest and early general election surveys from May and June indicating modest Democratic leads in head-to-head tests. These elements have shaped trader consensus around a modest Democratic edge while leaving room for shifts from primary outcomes or later campaign dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Michigan U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
音量
$117,177終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Oct 13, 2025, 5:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The open Michigan Senate seat, following incumbent Democrat Gary Peters' retirement, has produced a competitive general election outlook where traders assign Democrats a 69.5% implied probability. Key factors include Michigan's recent electoral patterns in a swing state, Democratic primary polling showing viable contenders such as Representative Haley Stevens and Abdul El-Sayed performing competitively or ahead in hypothetical matchups against Republican Mike Rogers, and the latter's prior narrow 2024 loss in the state. Recent developments include active Democratic primary spending by aligned groups ahead of the August 4 contest and early general election surveys from May and June indicating modest Democratic leads in head-to-head tests. These elements have shaped trader consensus around a modest Democratic edge while leaving room for shifts from primary outcomes or later campaign dynamics.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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