The open Senate seat created by Gary Peters’s retirement has produced a competitive general election matchup rated a toss-up by major forecasters, yet trader consensus assigns Democrats the 69.5% probability because recent general-election polling shows their primary contenders—Abdul El-Sayed, Mallory McMorrow, and Haley Stevens—holding narrow leads or statistical ties against Republican Mike Rogers. Rogers, the presumptive GOP nominee after his 2024 loss, faces the same suburban and turnout dynamics that have favored Democrats in Michigan’s recent federal contests. Democratic primary surveys through early June continue to show El-Sayed ahead or competitive, with endorsements and outside spending shaping a viable nominee by the August 4 contest. These factors, combined with the state’s recent voting patterns, sustain the current market pricing while leaving room for shifts from primary results or fall campaign developments.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$117,173 Vol.
$117,173 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
70%
共和党
28%
$117,173 Vol.
$117,173 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
$83,215 Vol.
70%
共和党
$33,958 Vol.
28%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Michigan U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.The open Senate seat created by Gary Peters’s retirement has produced a competitive general election matchup rated a toss-up by major forecasters, yet trader consensus assigns Democrats the 69.5% probability because recent general-election polling shows their primary contenders—Abdul El-Sayed, Mallory McMorrow, and Haley Stevens—holding narrow leads or statistical ties against Republican Mike Rogers. Rogers, the presumptive GOP nominee after his 2024 loss, faces the same suburban and turnout dynamics that have favored Democrats in Michigan’s recent federal contests. Democratic primary surveys through early June continue to show El-Sayed ahead or competitive, with endorsements and outside spending shaping a viable nominee by the August 4 contest. These factors, combined with the state’s recent voting patterns, sustain the current market pricing while leaving room for shifts from primary results or fall campaign developments.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Michigan U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
マーケット開始日： Oct 13, 2025, 5:07 PM ET
音量
$117,173終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Oct 13, 2025, 5:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Michigan U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.The open Senate seat created by Gary Peters’s retirement has produced a competitive general election matchup rated a toss-up by major forecasters, yet trader consensus assigns Democrats the 69.5% probability because recent general-election polling shows their primary contenders—Abdul El-Sayed, Mallory McMorrow, and Haley Stevens—holding narrow leads or statistical ties against Republican Mike Rogers. Rogers, the presumptive GOP nominee after his 2024 loss, faces the same suburban and turnout dynamics that have favored Democrats in Michigan’s recent federal contests. Democratic primary surveys through early June continue to show El-Sayed ahead or competitive, with endorsements and outside spending shaping a viable nominee by the August 4 contest. These factors, combined with the state’s recent voting patterns, sustain the current market pricing while leaving room for shifts from primary results or fall campaign developments.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Michigan U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
音量
$117,173終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Oct 13, 2025, 5:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The open Senate seat created by Gary Peters’s retirement has produced a competitive general election matchup rated a toss-up by major forecasters, yet trader consensus assigns Democrats the 69.5% probability because recent general-election polling shows their primary contenders—Abdul El-Sayed, Mallory McMorrow, and Haley Stevens—holding narrow leads or statistical ties against Republican Mike Rogers. Rogers, the presumptive GOP nominee after his 2024 loss, faces the same suburban and turnout dynamics that have favored Democrats in Michigan’s recent federal contests. Democratic primary surveys through early June continue to show El-Sayed ahead or competitive, with endorsements and outside spending shaping a viable nominee by the August 4 contest. These factors, combined with the state’s recent voting patterns, sustain the current market pricing while leaving room for shifts from primary results or fall campaign developments.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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