Recent generic congressional ballot polling averages have stabilized in the Democrats’ favor at roughly 6 points, with August surveys from sources including Morning Consult, YouGov/Economist, and Cygnal showing margins between D+4 and D+7 among registered or likely voters. This positioning reflects the typical midterm dynamic favoring the opposition party, compounded by a recent rebound from a narrower July gap after renewed tensions with Iran and higher gas prices shifted voter sentiment. Traders price the August 24 reading near the current 5-to-7-point range because fresh data releases and standard likely-voter adjustments have shown limited volatility in the preceding weeks, while wider leads above 7 points or sub-6-point outcomes remain less probable absent major polling shifts.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Dems +6.3% or lower 42%
Dems +7.0–7.1% 25%
Dems +6.6–6.7% 25%
Dems +6.4–6.5% 25%
新規
新規
2026/08/24
Dems +7.2%+
11%
Dems +7.0–7.1%
25%
Dems +6.8–6.9%
24%
Dems +6.6–6.7%
25%
Dems +6.4–6.5%
25%
Dems +6.3% or lower
42%
Dems +6.3% or lower 42%
Dems +7.0–7.1% 25%
Dems +6.6–6.7% 25%
Dems +6.4–6.5% 25%
新規
新規
2026/08/24
Dems +7.2%+
$0 Vol.
11%
Dems +7.0–7.1%
$0 Vol.
25%
Dems +6.8–6.9%
$0 Vol.
24%
Dems +6.6–6.7%
$0 Vol.
25%
Dems +6.4–6.5%
$0 Vol.
25%
Dems +6.3% or lower
$0 Vol.
42%
This market will resolve according to the difference in the Silver Bulletin's Generic Congressional Ballot polling averages for Democrats and Republicans for August 24, 2026.
The difference will be calculated by subtracting the number listed for Republicans from the number listed for Democrats, or vice versa depending on who is leading.
In the event that the market only lists brackets for one party, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the listed party if another party is leading in the average or if the average is tied.
The party ballot share numbers for the specified date must be finalized before it is considered for this market. A date's data points will be considered finalized once the data point for the next date is made available.
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's Generic Congressional Ballot, https://www.natesilver.net/p/generic-ballot-average-2026-nate-silver-bulletin-congress-polls. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the party averages will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's Generic Congressional Ballot polling averages become permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the polling values to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. In the event that the resolution source changes to allow additional decimal points, the polling average difference will be calculated by subtracting using the unrounded percentages and then rounding to the nearest tenth of a percentage point. Recent generic congressional ballot polling averages have stabilized in the Democrats’ favor at roughly 6 points, with August surveys from sources including Morning Consult, YouGov/Economist, and Cygnal showing margins between D+4 and D+7 among registered or likely voters. This positioning reflects the typical midterm dynamic favoring the opposition party, compounded by a recent rebound from a narrower July gap after renewed tensions with Iran and higher gas prices shifted voter sentiment. Traders price the August 24 reading near the current 5-to-7-point range because fresh data releases and standard likely-voter adjustments have shown limited volatility in the preceding weeks, while wider leads above 7 points or sub-6-point outcomes remain less probable absent major polling shifts.
This market will resolve according to the difference in the Silver Bulletin's Generic Congressional Ballot polling averages for Democrats and Republicans for August 24, 2026.
The difference will be calculated by subtracting the number listed for Republicans from the number listed for Democrats, or vice versa depending on who is leading.
In the event that the market only lists brackets for one party, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the listed party if another party is leading in the average or if the average is tied.
The party ballot share numbers for the specified date must be finalized before it is considered for this market. A date's data points will be considered finalized once the data point for the next date is made available.
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's Generic Congressional Ballot, https://www.natesilver.net/p/generic-ballot-average-2026-nate-silver-bulletin-congress-polls. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the party averages will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's Generic Congressional Ballot polling averages become permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the polling values to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. In the event that the resolution source changes to allow additional decimal points, the polling average difference will be calculated by subtracting using the unrounded percentages and then rounding to the nearest tenth of a percentage point.
The difference will be calculated by subtracting the number listed for Republicans from the number listed for Democrats, or vice versa depending on who is leading.
In the event that the market only lists brackets for one party, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the listed party if another party is leading in the average or if the average is tied.
The party ballot share numbers for the specified date must be finalized before it is considered for this market. A date's data points will be considered finalized once the data point for the next date is made available.
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's Generic Congressional Ballot, https://www.natesilver.net/p/generic-ballot-average-2026-nate-silver-bulletin-congress-polls. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the party averages will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's Generic Congressional Ballot polling averages become permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the polling values to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. In the event that the resolution source changes to allow additional decimal points, the polling average difference will be calculated by subtracting using the unrounded percentages and then rounding to the nearest tenth of a percentage point.
マーケット開始日： Aug 18, 2026, 3:06 PM ET
音量
$0終了日
2026/08/24マーケット開始日
Aug 18, 2026, 3:06 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the difference in the Silver Bulletin's Generic Congressional Ballot polling averages for Democrats and Republicans for August 24, 2026.
The difference will be calculated by subtracting the number listed for Republicans from the number listed for Democrats, or vice versa depending on who is leading.
In the event that the market only lists brackets for one party, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the listed party if another party is leading in the average or if the average is tied.
The party ballot share numbers for the specified date must be finalized before it is considered for this market. A date's data points will be considered finalized once the data point for the next date is made available.
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's Generic Congressional Ballot, https://www.natesilver.net/p/generic-ballot-average-2026-nate-silver-bulletin-congress-polls. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the party averages will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's Generic Congressional Ballot polling averages become permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the polling values to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. In the event that the resolution source changes to allow additional decimal points, the polling average difference will be calculated by subtracting using the unrounded percentages and then rounding to the nearest tenth of a percentage point. Recent generic congressional ballot polling averages have stabilized in the Democrats’ favor at roughly 6 points, with August surveys from sources including Morning Consult, YouGov/Economist, and Cygnal showing margins between D+4 and D+7 among registered or likely voters. This positioning reflects the typical midterm dynamic favoring the opposition party, compounded by a recent rebound from a narrower July gap after renewed tensions with Iran and higher gas prices shifted voter sentiment. Traders price the August 24 reading near the current 5-to-7-point range because fresh data releases and standard likely-voter adjustments have shown limited volatility in the preceding weeks, while wider leads above 7 points or sub-6-point outcomes remain less probable absent major polling shifts.
This market will resolve according to the difference in the Silver Bulletin's Generic Congressional Ballot polling averages for Democrats and Republicans for August 24, 2026.
The difference will be calculated by subtracting the number listed for Republicans from the number listed for Democrats, or vice versa depending on who is leading.
In the event that the market only lists brackets for one party, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the listed party if another party is leading in the average or if the average is tied.
The party ballot share numbers for the specified date must be finalized before it is considered for this market. A date's data points will be considered finalized once the data point for the next date is made available.
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's Generic Congressional Ballot, https://www.natesilver.net/p/generic-ballot-average-2026-nate-silver-bulletin-congress-polls. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the party averages will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's Generic Congressional Ballot polling averages become permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the polling values to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. In the event that the resolution source changes to allow additional decimal points, the polling average difference will be calculated by subtracting using the unrounded percentages and then rounding to the nearest tenth of a percentage point.
The difference will be calculated by subtracting the number listed for Republicans from the number listed for Democrats, or vice versa depending on who is leading.
In the event that the market only lists brackets for one party, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the listed party if another party is leading in the average or if the average is tied.
The party ballot share numbers for the specified date must be finalized before it is considered for this market. A date's data points will be considered finalized once the data point for the next date is made available.
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's Generic Congressional Ballot, https://www.natesilver.net/p/generic-ballot-average-2026-nate-silver-bulletin-congress-polls. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the party averages will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's Generic Congressional Ballot polling averages become permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the polling values to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. In the event that the resolution source changes to allow additional decimal points, the polling average difference will be calculated by subtracting using the unrounded percentages and then rounding to the nearest tenth of a percentage point.
音量
$0終了日
2026/08/24マーケット開始日
Aug 18, 2026, 3:06 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent generic congressional ballot polling averages have stabilized in the Democrats’ favor at roughly 6 points, with August surveys from sources including Morning Consult, YouGov/Economist, and Cygnal showing margins between D+4 and D+7 among registered or likely voters. This positioning reflects the typical midterm dynamic favoring the opposition party, compounded by a recent rebound from a narrower July gap after renewed tensions with Iran and higher gas prices shifted voter sentiment. Traders price the August 24 reading near the current 5-to-7-point range because fresh data releases and standard likely-voter adjustments have shown limited volatility in the preceding weeks, while wider leads above 7 points or sub-6-point outcomes remain less probable absent major polling shifts.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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