Ongoing orbital monitoring by NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and ESA shows no known near-Earth asteroids or comets on collision trajectories capable of delivering 10kt or greater energy through the remainder of 2026. Recent close approaches, including multiple objects passing within a few lunar distances in August, have all been confirmed safe misses with refined trajectories. Extensive cataloging of larger potentially hazardous asteroids combined with statistical rarity of undetected city-killer-scale events supports trader consensus favoring no major strike. Key upcoming catalysts include continued LSST survey operations and any new discoveries from ground-based networks that could alter impact probabilities.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
11% 確率
$200,454 Vol.
$200,454 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
11% 確率
$200,454 Vol.
$200,454 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Ongoing orbital monitoring by NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and ESA shows no known near-Earth asteroids or comets on collision trajectories capable of delivering 10kt or greater energy through the remainder of 2026. Recent close approaches, including multiple objects passing within a few lunar distances in August, have all been confirmed safe misses with refined trajectories. Extensive cataloging of larger potentially hazardous asteroids combined with statistical rarity of undetected city-killer-scale events supports trader consensus favoring no major strike. Key upcoming catalysts include continued LSST survey operations and any new discoveries from ground-based networks that could alter impact probabilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
マーケット開始日： Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ET
音量
$200,454終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Ongoing orbital monitoring by NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and ESA shows no known near-Earth asteroids or comets on collision trajectories capable of delivering 10kt or greater energy through the remainder of 2026. Recent close approaches, including multiple objects passing within a few lunar distances in August, have all been confirmed safe misses with refined trajectories. Extensive cataloging of larger potentially hazardous asteroids combined with statistical rarity of undetected city-killer-scale events supports trader consensus favoring no major strike. Key upcoming catalysts include continued LSST survey operations and any new discoveries from ground-based networks that could alter impact probabilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
音量
$200,454終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Ongoing orbital monitoring by NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and ESA shows no known near-Earth asteroids or comets on collision trajectories capable of delivering 10kt or greater energy through the remainder of 2026. Recent close approaches, including multiple objects passing within a few lunar distances in August, have all been confirmed safe misses with refined trajectories. Extensive cataloging of larger potentially hazardous asteroids combined with statistical rarity of undetected city-killer-scale events supports trader consensus favoring no major strike. Key upcoming catalysts include continued LSST survey operations and any new discoveries from ground-based networks that could alter impact probabilities.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問