**No 100kt meteor strike is expected in 2026, with market-implied odds reflecting robust NASA CNEOS and ESA monitoring data.** Comprehensive Sentry impact assessments of known near-Earth objects show no objects on collision trajectories capable of delivering that energy release—roughly equivalent to a 10–20 meter asteroid at typical velocities. Ongoing surveys have cataloged the majority of potentially hazardous bodies in this size range, and recent close approaches monitored through mid-2026 have all safely missed Earth. Historical impact frequency for objects yielding ~100 kilotons is low, on the order of once per millennium or longer. A realistic challenge would require discovery of a previously undetected small NEO on a precise intercept orbit, though current observational coverage and rapid follow-up protocols make this improbable before year-end. Trader conviction aligns with the absence of any verified risk elevation in official planetary defense updates.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
新規
新規
2026/12/31
はい
新規
新規
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.**No 100kt meteor strike is expected in 2026, with market-implied odds reflecting robust NASA CNEOS and ESA monitoring data.** Comprehensive Sentry impact assessments of known near-Earth objects show no objects on collision trajectories capable of delivering that energy release—roughly equivalent to a 10–20 meter asteroid at typical velocities. Ongoing surveys have cataloged the majority of potentially hazardous bodies in this size range, and recent close approaches monitored through mid-2026 have all safely missed Earth. Historical impact frequency for objects yielding ~100 kilotons is low, on the order of once per millennium or longer. A realistic challenge would require discovery of a previously undetected small NEO on a precise intercept orbit, though current observational coverage and rapid follow-up protocols make this improbable before year-end. Trader conviction aligns with the absence of any verified risk elevation in official planetary defense updates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
マーケット開始日： Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ET
音量
$8,238終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.**No 100kt meteor strike is expected in 2026, with market-implied odds reflecting robust NASA CNEOS and ESA monitoring data.** Comprehensive Sentry impact assessments of known near-Earth objects show no objects on collision trajectories capable of delivering that energy release—roughly equivalent to a 10–20 meter asteroid at typical velocities. Ongoing surveys have cataloged the majority of potentially hazardous bodies in this size range, and recent close approaches monitored through mid-2026 have all safely missed Earth. Historical impact frequency for objects yielding ~100 kilotons is low, on the order of once per millennium or longer. A realistic challenge would require discovery of a previously undetected small NEO on a precise intercept orbit, though current observational coverage and rapid follow-up protocols make this improbable before year-end. Trader conviction aligns with the absence of any verified risk elevation in official planetary defense updates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
音量
$8,238終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**No 100kt meteor strike is expected in 2026, with market-implied odds reflecting robust NASA CNEOS and ESA monitoring data.** Comprehensive Sentry impact assessments of known near-Earth objects show no objects on collision trajectories capable of delivering that energy release—roughly equivalent to a 10–20 meter asteroid at typical velocities. Ongoing surveys have cataloged the majority of potentially hazardous bodies in this size range, and recent close approaches monitored through mid-2026 have all safely missed Earth. Historical impact frequency for objects yielding ~100 kilotons is low, on the order of once per millennium or longer. A realistic challenge would require discovery of a previously undetected small NEO on a precise intercept orbit, though current observational coverage and rapid follow-up protocols make this improbable before year-end. Trader conviction aligns with the absence of any verified risk elevation in official planetary defense updates.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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