No qualifying bolide events exceeding the 5 kt TNT threshold have been recorded in 2026 through mid-September, according to NASA JPL CNEOS fireball data, which has driven the market-implied probability of “No” to 73%. Historical analyses of infrasound and satellite records indicate roughly one such atmospheric impact annually on average, though Poisson variability means any single year carries substantial uncertainty. No catalogued near-Earth objects large enough to produce a 5 kt airburst are on collision courses this year, per ongoing Sentry monitoring and recent close-approach lists. With only about 3.5 months remaining, the absence of detections so far materially lowers the remaining-year odds relative to full-year base rates. Resolution depends on final CNEOS updates through December 31.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
27% 確率
$314,093 Vol.
$314,093 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
27% 確率
$314,093 Vol.
$314,093 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.No qualifying bolide events exceeding the 5 kt TNT threshold have been recorded in 2026 through mid-September, according to NASA JPL CNEOS fireball data, which has driven the market-implied probability of “No” to 73%. Historical analyses of infrasound and satellite records indicate roughly one such atmospheric impact annually on average, though Poisson variability means any single year carries substantial uncertainty. No catalogued near-Earth objects large enough to produce a 5 kt airburst are on collision courses this year, per ongoing Sentry monitoring and recent close-approach lists. With only about 3.5 months remaining, the absence of detections so far materially lowers the remaining-year odds relative to full-year base rates. Resolution depends on final CNEOS updates through December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
マーケット開始日： Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
音量
$314,093終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.No qualifying bolide events exceeding the 5 kt TNT threshold have been recorded in 2026 through mid-September, according to NASA JPL CNEOS fireball data, which has driven the market-implied probability of “No” to 73%. Historical analyses of infrasound and satellite records indicate roughly one such atmospheric impact annually on average, though Poisson variability means any single year carries substantial uncertainty. No catalogued near-Earth objects large enough to produce a 5 kt airburst are on collision courses this year, per ongoing Sentry monitoring and recent close-approach lists. With only about 3.5 months remaining, the absence of detections so far materially lowers the remaining-year odds relative to full-year base rates. Resolution depends on final CNEOS updates through December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
音量
$314,093終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...No qualifying bolide events exceeding the 5 kt TNT threshold have been recorded in 2026 through mid-September, according to NASA JPL CNEOS fireball data, which has driven the market-implied probability of “No” to 73%. Historical analyses of infrasound and satellite records indicate roughly one such atmospheric impact annually on average, though Poisson variability means any single year carries substantial uncertainty. No catalogued near-Earth objects large enough to produce a 5 kt airburst are on collision courses this year, per ongoing Sentry monitoring and recent close-approach lists. With only about 3.5 months remaining, the absence of detections so far materially lowers the remaining-year odds relative to full-year base rates. Resolution depends on final CNEOS updates through December 31.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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