No known near-Earth objects pose a collision risk capable of a 5 kt or greater airburst in 2026, according to NASA’s CNEOS and ESA monitoring, keeping trader consensus at 72.5% for no event. Catalogued NEOs show zero meaningful impact probability this year, while recent fireballs tracked via the JPL Fireball repository—including daytime bolides over Massachusetts and Ohio—have all registered well below the 5 kt threshold. Historical data indicate objects several meters across produce such airbursts on roughly decadal rather than annual timescales, with improved detection networks increasing reports without raising actual hazard levels. Ongoing surveys through year-end could still reveal small undetected impactors, though current orbital assessments leave limited room for a qualifying strike before resolution criteria are evaluated in early 2027.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$306,607 Vol.
$306,607 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
$306,607 Vol.
$306,607 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.No known near-Earth objects pose a collision risk capable of a 5 kt or greater airburst in 2026, according to NASA’s CNEOS and ESA monitoring, keeping trader consensus at 72.5% for no event. Catalogued NEOs show zero meaningful impact probability this year, while recent fireballs tracked via the JPL Fireball repository—including daytime bolides over Massachusetts and Ohio—have all registered well below the 5 kt threshold. Historical data indicate objects several meters across produce such airbursts on roughly decadal rather than annual timescales, with improved detection networks increasing reports without raising actual hazard levels. Ongoing surveys through year-end could still reveal small undetected impactors, though current orbital assessments leave limited room for a qualifying strike before resolution criteria are evaluated in early 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
マーケット開始日： Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
音量
$306,607終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.No known near-Earth objects pose a collision risk capable of a 5 kt or greater airburst in 2026, according to NASA’s CNEOS and ESA monitoring, keeping trader consensus at 72.5% for no event. Catalogued NEOs show zero meaningful impact probability this year, while recent fireballs tracked via the JPL Fireball repository—including daytime bolides over Massachusetts and Ohio—have all registered well below the 5 kt threshold. Historical data indicate objects several meters across produce such airbursts on roughly decadal rather than annual timescales, with improved detection networks increasing reports without raising actual hazard levels. Ongoing surveys through year-end could still reveal small undetected impactors, though current orbital assessments leave limited room for a qualifying strike before resolution criteria are evaluated in early 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
音量
$306,607終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...No known near-Earth objects pose a collision risk capable of a 5 kt or greater airburst in 2026, according to NASA’s CNEOS and ESA monitoring, keeping trader consensus at 72.5% for no event. Catalogued NEOs show zero meaningful impact probability this year, while recent fireballs tracked via the JPL Fireball repository—including daytime bolides over Massachusetts and Ohio—have all registered well below the 5 kt threshold. Historical data indicate objects several meters across produce such airbursts on roughly decadal rather than annual timescales, with improved detection networks increasing reports without raising actual hazard levels. Ongoing surveys through year-end could still reveal small undetected impactors, though current orbital assessments leave limited room for a qualifying strike before resolution criteria are evaluated in early 2027.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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