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icon for 2026年に5 ktの隕石衝突?

2026年に5 ktの隕石衝突?

icon for 2026年に5 ktの隕石衝突?

2026年に5 ktの隕石衝突?

12月 31

12月 31

はい

25% 確率
Polymarket

$306,667 Vol.

はい

25% 確率
Polymarket

$306,667 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify. The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.**No 5kt meteor strike in 2026 currently trades at an implied ~75% probability on Polymarket, reflecting traders' assessment of low odds for a bolide airburst releasing at least 5 kilotons TNT equivalent this year.** Historical infrasound and optical surveys indicate such events occur on average once every several years to a decade or more, following a steep power-law size-frequency distribution where smaller fireballs are far more common than 5 kt-class impacts (comparable to the 2013 Chelyabinsk event at hundreds of kt). With roughly half of 2026 elapsed and no confirmed detections meeting the energy threshold, the market embeds the remaining risk window. NASA and ESA catalogs show no known near-Earth objects on collision trajectories for 2026, while improved surveys (e.g., ATLAS, Catalina) have raised the fraction of detectable meter-scale impactors, lowering the chance of undetected surprises. A reported surge in fireball sightings during Q1 2026 increased witness counts but has not produced verified 5 kt+ events, consistent with smaller, more frequent objects. Traders therefore assign roughly 25–30% odds to a Yes resolution by year-end, driven by the baseline Poisson-like rate tempered by ongoing global monitoring and the absence of specific precursors. New data releases from fireball networks or updated NEO catalogs could shift sentiment if an energetic event is confirmed or a candidate approaches detection thresholds.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.

The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
音量
$306,667
終了日
2026/12/31
マーケット開始日
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify. The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify. The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.**No 5kt meteor strike in 2026 currently trades at an implied ~75% probability on Polymarket, reflecting traders' assessment of low odds for a bolide airburst releasing at least 5 kilotons TNT equivalent this year.** Historical infrasound and optical surveys indicate such events occur on average once every several years to a decade or more, following a steep power-law size-frequency distribution where smaller fireballs are far more common than 5 kt-class impacts (comparable to the 2013 Chelyabinsk event at hundreds of kt). With roughly half of 2026 elapsed and no confirmed detections meeting the energy threshold, the market embeds the remaining risk window. NASA and ESA catalogs show no known near-Earth objects on collision trajectories for 2026, while improved surveys (e.g., ATLAS, Catalina) have raised the fraction of detectable meter-scale impactors, lowering the chance of undetected surprises. A reported surge in fireball sightings during Q1 2026 increased witness counts but has not produced verified 5 kt+ events, consistent with smaller, more frequent objects. Traders therefore assign roughly 25–30% odds to a Yes resolution by year-end, driven by the baseline Poisson-like rate tempered by ongoing global monitoring and the absence of specific precursors. New data releases from fireball networks or updated NEO catalogs could shift sentiment if an energetic event is confirmed or a candidate approaches detection thresholds.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.

The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
音量
$306,667
終了日
2026/12/31
マーケット開始日
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify. The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.

外部リンクに注意してください。

よくある質問

「2026年に5 ktの隕石衝突?」はPolymarket上の2個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「2026年に5キロトンの隕石衝突?」で25%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、25¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に25%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「2026年に5 ktの隕石衝突?」は$306.7Kの総取引量を生み出しています(Dec 31, 2025のマーケット開始以来)。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「2026年に5 ktの隕石衝突?」で取引するには、このページに記載されている2個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「2026年に5 ktの隕石衝突?」の現在のフロントランナーは「2026年に5キロトンの隕石衝突?」で25%であり、市場がこの結果に25%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「2026年に5 ktの隕石衝突?」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。