No at 75.5% reflects the low historical frequency of 5-kiloton-or-greater bolides, estimated at roughly one event every several years based on satellite and ground observations, combined with exhaustive near-Earth object surveys by NASA’s CNEOS and ESA showing no objects on collision trajectories for 2026. Ongoing monitoring through Sentry and Scout systems continues to rule out significant risks, while the early-2026 uptick in reported fireballs has involved predominantly smaller objects below resolution thresholds. Traders weigh these factors against the remote chance of an undetected small asteroid, but current orbital data and absence of alerts keep the market-implied odds firmly tilted toward no qualifying atmospheric impact this year.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$306,672 Vol.
$306,672 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
$306,672 Vol.
$306,672 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.No at 75.5% reflects the low historical frequency of 5-kiloton-or-greater bolides, estimated at roughly one event every several years based on satellite and ground observations, combined with exhaustive near-Earth object surveys by NASA’s CNEOS and ESA showing no objects on collision trajectories for 2026. Ongoing monitoring through Sentry and Scout systems continues to rule out significant risks, while the early-2026 uptick in reported fireballs has involved predominantly smaller objects below resolution thresholds. Traders weigh these factors against the remote chance of an undetected small asteroid, but current orbital data and absence of alerts keep the market-implied odds firmly tilted toward no qualifying atmospheric impact this year.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
マーケット開始日： Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
音量
$306,672終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.No at 75.5% reflects the low historical frequency of 5-kiloton-or-greater bolides, estimated at roughly one event every several years based on satellite and ground observations, combined with exhaustive near-Earth object surveys by NASA’s CNEOS and ESA showing no objects on collision trajectories for 2026. Ongoing monitoring through Sentry and Scout systems continues to rule out significant risks, while the early-2026 uptick in reported fireballs has involved predominantly smaller objects below resolution thresholds. Traders weigh these factors against the remote chance of an undetected small asteroid, but current orbital data and absence of alerts keep the market-implied odds firmly tilted toward no qualifying atmospheric impact this year.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
音量
$306,672終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...No at 75.5% reflects the low historical frequency of 5-kiloton-or-greater bolides, estimated at roughly one event every several years based on satellite and ground observations, combined with exhaustive near-Earth object surveys by NASA’s CNEOS and ESA showing no objects on collision trajectories for 2026. Ongoing monitoring through Sentry and Scout systems continues to rule out significant risks, while the early-2026 uptick in reported fireballs has involved predominantly smaller objects below resolution thresholds. Traders weigh these factors against the remote chance of an undetected small asteroid, but current orbital data and absence of alerts keep the market-implied odds firmly tilted toward no qualifying atmospheric impact this year.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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