No known near-Earth objects large enough to produce a 5-kiloton or greater airburst are on collision trajectories for 2026, according to NASA’s CNEOS Sentry monitoring and ESA risk lists, which show zero significant impact probabilities this year. Historical impact frequencies place 5 kt bolides on decadal rather than annual timescales, consistent with objects several meters across entering the atmosphere. Recent 2026 fireball reports, including events near Cleveland and in Massachusetts, remain well below the energy threshold despite elevated witness counts that reflect improved detection networks rather than heightened hazard. Ongoing surveys could still reveal small undetected impactors before year-end, yet current orbital data and base rates sustain trader consensus favoring no qualifying strike at the prevailing 72.5% implied probability for “No.”
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$306,607 Vol.
$306,607 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
$306,607 Vol.
$306,607 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.No known near-Earth objects large enough to produce a 5-kiloton or greater airburst are on collision trajectories for 2026, according to NASA’s CNEOS Sentry monitoring and ESA risk lists, which show zero significant impact probabilities this year. Historical impact frequencies place 5 kt bolides on decadal rather than annual timescales, consistent with objects several meters across entering the atmosphere. Recent 2026 fireball reports, including events near Cleveland and in Massachusetts, remain well below the energy threshold despite elevated witness counts that reflect improved detection networks rather than heightened hazard. Ongoing surveys could still reveal small undetected impactors before year-end, yet current orbital data and base rates sustain trader consensus favoring no qualifying strike at the prevailing 72.5% implied probability for “No.”
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
マーケット開始日： Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
音量
$306,607終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.No known near-Earth objects large enough to produce a 5-kiloton or greater airburst are on collision trajectories for 2026, according to NASA’s CNEOS Sentry monitoring and ESA risk lists, which show zero significant impact probabilities this year. Historical impact frequencies place 5 kt bolides on decadal rather than annual timescales, consistent with objects several meters across entering the atmosphere. Recent 2026 fireball reports, including events near Cleveland and in Massachusetts, remain well below the energy threshold despite elevated witness counts that reflect improved detection networks rather than heightened hazard. Ongoing surveys could still reveal small undetected impactors before year-end, yet current orbital data and base rates sustain trader consensus favoring no qualifying strike at the prevailing 72.5% implied probability for “No.”
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
音量
$306,607終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...No known near-Earth objects large enough to produce a 5-kiloton or greater airburst are on collision trajectories for 2026, according to NASA’s CNEOS Sentry monitoring and ESA risk lists, which show zero significant impact probabilities this year. Historical impact frequencies place 5 kt bolides on decadal rather than annual timescales, consistent with objects several meters across entering the atmosphere. Recent 2026 fireball reports, including events near Cleveland and in Massachusetts, remain well below the energy threshold despite elevated witness counts that reflect improved detection networks rather than heightened hazard. Ongoing surveys could still reveal small undetected impactors before year-end, yet current orbital data and base rates sustain trader consensus favoring no qualifying strike at the prevailing 72.5% implied probability for “No.”
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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