**No 5kt meteor strike in 2026 currently trades at an implied ~75% probability on Polymarket, reflecting traders' assessment of low odds for a bolide airburst releasing at least 5 kilotons TNT equivalent this year.** Historical infrasound and optical surveys indicate such events occur on average once every several years to a decade or more, following a steep power-law size-frequency distribution where smaller fireballs are far more common than 5 kt-class impacts (comparable to the 2013 Chelyabinsk event at hundreds of kt). With roughly half of 2026 elapsed and no confirmed detections meeting the energy threshold, the market embeds the remaining risk window. NASA and ESA catalogs show no known near-Earth objects on collision trajectories for 2026, while improved surveys (e.g., ATLAS, Catalina) have raised the fraction of detectable meter-scale impactors, lowering the chance of undetected surprises. A reported surge in fireball sightings during Q1 2026 increased witness counts but has not produced verified 5 kt+ events, consistent with smaller, more frequent objects. Traders therefore assign roughly 25–30% odds to a Yes resolution by year-end, driven by the baseline Poisson-like rate tempered by ongoing global monitoring and the absence of specific precursors. New data releases from fireball networks or updated NEO catalogs could shift sentiment if an energetic event is confirmed or a candidate approaches detection thresholds.